Columns
Dangote fuel: Nigeria will get mercy when they deserve it!
By Sunny Igboanugo
Dangote, NNPC: Too early to cry, too late to beg Tinubu
Greed is one of the most debilitating diseases a man could suffer, if not the most devastating. Now, let me tell you about greed. In fact, let me cite an example of how destructive the demon of greed could be both to the person that becomes a victim by coming under its grips and the society that shares as a victim.
Did you know about Pablo Escobar? Full name: Pablo Emilio Escobar Gaviria! He was not only the most notorious drug baron in Columbia, if not world history, but the richest criminal of global reckon, amassing, before his death in 1993, more than $30billion from the production and sale of hard drugs. In today’s rating, the raking of the infamous drug-lord, founder of the Medellin Cartel, has been put at well over $70billion.
Now, imagine if he were still alive. His earnings must have hit trillions of dollars. But never doubt that he would not only have remained in that business, but would have continued to accumulate more, regardless the havoc of his wicked enterprise. Why? Simple – the spirit of money. Irrespective the amount of money he must have amassed, he would still be in it. After all, he was, until he was finally caged by the law and died as a result.
In fact, one account quoted Roberto Escobar, accountant to the late kingpin, as saying the gang spent $2,500 a month for buying rubber bands to wrap his stacks of cash alone. Just imagine that. You’re talking about more than N5million in today’s equivalent. Mind you, we’re not talking about electronics or garments – those tiny rubber used in binding money – $2,500 worth monthly. Damn! That must be truckloads of bags of the stuff. Just to bind money! Yet, he never stopped. That is the disease of greed.
It is as contagions as the substance Escobar and his gang sold – more intoxicating than the hardest liquor – more deleterious than cancer – and more dangerous than the worst crime. It steals the soul from the victim and replaces it with stone or something more innate and more lifeless. It turns human beings into monsters – merciless beasts that kill and destroy without pity.
Now, take a sample of how beastly Escobar was. I’ll start with what he did to those who opposed him. A judge, was said to have given a judgement against him in court. Guess what he did? The judge was kidnapped by his henchmen and brought before him. After the personal encounter, the unfortunate jurist, one in many of his victims, was taken into a helicopter and flown high enough and let off in the middle of the city, head-first, so that when he crashed on the hard ground, the mess made by the brain that splashed on the ground, decorated the road like a paint. That was to teach others to be more prudent with their ideas.
That was just one part. There were other more blood-chilling stories. Though an outlaw himself, he was said to be merciless against those who went against the rules, particularly pinching his money. Ordinarily, you became stupendously rich by working in his well-knit organisation. But that was until you got itchy fingers. Then, you were taught a practical lesson of the difference in his diametrically opposing world – of maximum pleasure and agonising pains.
For it was said of him that stealing from his vast wealth was the greatest sin in his empire. The consequences, was in fact, worse than attempting to double-cross him. You could picture what such punishment would be! Horrible death! Hanging could the most merciful. Otherwise, you could be fed alive to one of his pet pythons, thrown into the crocodile-infested ponds to be feasted upon, fried in a drum of boiling oil or simply burnt alive on a stake.
Now, does it offend your sensibilities to situate or comprehend that such a man could be so brutal against those who tried to pay him back in his own coins – the same measure he was using in cheating the system and destroying the society? An irony and contradiction in terms, you might say!
Then I say, my compatriots – that is the same way you cannot make sense of what is happening in your country, Nigeria today. It made no sense to you yesterday, it is not making sense today and it will not make sense tomorrow. That, of course is because you don’t belong to their world – a dusky world, where everything is conducted in pitch-black darkness – a soulless world controlled by the demon of greed.
So, this Monday morning, September 16, 2024, when Rufai Oseni, a popular voice on national affairs and one of the anchors of The Morning Show, a breakfast programme on Arise News Television, after doing what he knows how to do best – dissecting the issue of Nigeria in the clearest terms – for the umpteenth time, concluded by appealing to the conscience of the powers that be in Nigeria – those responsible for the current excruciating suffering in the country – to soften their legs on the pedal, reduce the speed and slow down the galloping vehicle with which they are driving the collective fate of Nigerians down the slopy hill, the question, I asked myself was, did he understand?
For emphasis, he had tried logic, remonstrating that the money they were amassing today, would be useless to them at death and behind them. He emphasised that their children would squander the same accumulated wealth by wasting them on mundane fancies, only for things to return to the basics. Yes! The same children would be left groping for survival, simply because they made no meaningful contributions in creating the wealth. Touching and convincing argument to make, you’d suppose.
His words: “Have mercy! Have mercy on Nigerians. Stop the stealing, reduce the corruption. The hardship is too much. Nigerians are dying of poverty, hunger and disease.” With a glint in his eyes, he pled again: “Have mercy! Stop killing Nigerians!” Who was he addressing? That was the question I asked myself.
It was akin to that scene in the court of Venice in Shakespeare’s epic – The Merchant of Venice – where Portia pleaded with Shylock, the Jewish merchant to have mercy and spare the life of Antonio, but which was ignored because he (Shylock), wanted nothing outside having his pound of flesh, to satisfy his urge for vengeance for past wrongdoing for which he bore years of grudge.
In the same TV show on Monday, Ojy Okpe, the face of What’s Trending, a segment of the programme, played a trending video in the social media of a Nigerian mother going by the tag – the _victorious_chisom, passionately begging President Bola Tinubu and wife, Oluremi, to have mercy on her and her children.
“Dear President,” she began, “the hardship is telling on us, especially we, widows, like me. I’m a widow of two children who are still toddlers. I became a widow, Your Excellency Sir, because of the insecurity in Nigeria. My late husband was kidnapped in 2022 and was killed, despite paying ransom. Your Excellency, I’m law-abiding, I’m hardworking. And despite being a widow whose children were made fatherless due to insecurity, I still keep pushing. I still live in Nigeria. I still stay and live in Nigeria.
“My dear President, please I’m begging, the hardship is too much, the hardship is telling on us. Many young widows are suffering. Please pity us. Have mercy on us. Dear First Lady, Oluremi Tinubu, please, you’re a mother and you’re a wife and I know and I believe you know what we are going through, especially young widows like us.”
Then, the clincher: “At this point, I’m fed up. I’m tired. I can’t take it any longer!” That was how she ended. The rest of her sad story was told by tiny droplets of tears lurking at the corners of both eyes, refusing to flow down. Who knows how long she had been crying for the tears to have become that tiny that you’d have to look hard enough to observe them?
If you had watched as I did, I’m sure you heard clearly, when Reuben Abati, another anchor in the programme, stated the obvious in his concluding comments. “She spoke for the rest of us,” he had said. No! She didn’t! She rather spoke for the millions of voiceless families that are worse than her – mothers dying in silence, who have no access to phones, not to talk about data or media space to post the littlest snippets of their anguish.
She spoke for families who have buried one or two of their children due to lack of money to buy cheap medicines to treat common malaria – millions of others who go to bed with empty stomachs and have done so for days and weeks on end and millions more who are waiting to be swallowed up by the elements.
If I were close to that woman, I would have asked her to save her breath, wipe her tears and wait for the appropriate time, because that moment is coming when she would need them. Surely, by that time, nobody would need to tell her it is time to cry. But not now that petrol is still selling at N1,000. No! After all, it is still cheaper than the price in Togo and Benin Republic. Didn’t IMF say so? Aren’t they the masters we listen to? They said Nigeria is still selling cheaper than other countries. Why? Why should it be cheaper when we need all the money to keep the Villa comfortable? Or don’t they know that in there is where we have “Thinking People” – whose brains are sharper than Socrates and Aristotle put together – the reason they’re taking such BOLD decisions to redeem years of mess? These Nigerians self! Did they think that deep thinking is conducted under inclement weather? No! Such thinking need the coziest environments such as diamond-encrusted chairs and ornamental beds inside the bellies of N5billion yachts to conduct.
That said, she should therefore await the time she can no longer afford data or must have sold her phone and other belongings and found a space with her children in the cold streets, if not a worse situation. The road she is currently trodding would surely lead her to her destination where she would find the right corners to cry at the appropriate time, assuming she could muster the strength to shed tears at that point. Of course, she would not be alone there. That’s for sure. She would have company – plenty!
As for her appeal to Tinubu, what mercy does she want the President and family to show? Is Tinubu the cause of her situation? Didn’t he meet a bad economy, inherited from Muhammadu Buhari, his predecessor? Come to think of it, didn’t he alert the nation early enough that he would continue Buhari’s “legacies,” where he stopped? If Buhari flogged them with koboko and he’s now flogging them with snakes and scorpions, what crime did he commit? Isn’t that the idea of promise kept?
These Nigerians self! Didn’t the woman hear him tell his China host that he’s a “reformer?” How else are reforms conducted? What else is reform than spending money like it is going out of fashion – buying new Presidential planes, acquiring new yachts, exotic cars for himself, renovating mansions and putting other facilities in place for pleasuring himself and those now “serving” the country? Didn’t she hear him say subsidy is gone? Did he have water in his mouth when he said so last year or was his voice not audible enough?
Coming to the issue everyone is complaining about, was he the one that employed the people at the NNPCL or did they see him around Dangote? Why should he demand anything from them? Do they want to knock his head together with those voracious, avaricious and powerful members of the Vested Interest Club that have dared his predecessors to move against them?
Is it this Presidency that he crossed seven rivers and seven forest to get, confronting all the elements in the wilderness to boot, that these troublesome Nigerians now want him to fritter away by leading him to confront such monstrous behemoth with bare hands. Ko le wek! E no go work for them! If the woman wants mercy, let her direct her tears to the appropriate quarters. Why does she want to stain his clothes with her tears? Why should anyone blame him for the pervading greed that has been there even when he was still hustling in Chicago – whose origin is as old as Nigeria itself?
Even the legendary Fela sang about it – the N2.8billion, missing oil money! What was the verdict of Justice Ayo Irikefe? Didn’t he look into his crystal ball and declare that no oil money was missing. So, kini big deal? If the problem was not dealt with in 1979, how could he, Tinubu fix it now? In fact, why should he?
Besides, how many times and for how long would he continue to sing it like a song that Nigeria under him is like a woman in labour who must bear the pangs of it no matter how long it lasts? What’s with Nigeria about impatience? Even if the woman dies, what about it? She wouldn’t be the first. Many other women have died and many others waiting to die. Right now, even when some are reeling under the pangs of childbirth, many are at this minute enjoying the pleasure – and asking for more – that would make them visit the labour room tomorrow to bear the same pain.
Come to think of it, what did they contribute to his road to the Villa? Didn’t they hear him recount how he snatched, grabbed and ran with power? Did they think he would go through all that and not enjoy his prize to the fullest?
Did they think a world-class accountant with enough sharp memories to be able to last him a lifetime – that goes to bed with figures, forgets easily? Did they think he didn’t hear the trolls and catcalls during those days of Bala-blu-bulaba? They were laughing then and calling him names. Who’s laughing now?
What were they thinking he alluded to when on the night of March 1, 2023, after Mahmoud Yakubu, the INEC chairman declared him winner of the presidential election he told them – I hear you! Loud and clear?! This is surely payback time to them for their move through their “votes” or lack of it. O! How they would – in full!
Did they think that his memory is so short as to forget the favours – such as losing Lagos and Abuja? What if the courts had not come to his rescue? What if those judges had believed Peter Obi that 25 per cent votes in Abuja is like the Use of English in JAMB – a compulsory subject each student must pass or Atiku Abubakar, who insisted he was nowhere near Chicago State University, not to talk about possessing their certificate?
Next time they should know how to cast their votes. You get mercy when you deserve it. Yes! Nyesom Wike, his henchman in the FCT has promised Abuja will never happen again. Lagos, was an error too that the MC Oluomo and other leg-men have since corrected! Maybe when these people learn to cooperate and stop voting nonsense! May be then, “Sister Mercy” might have returned from the market! But for now, she’s still on her journey yet. Her heading home would either be in 2027 or 2031. That is a long time to start shedding tears now!
My name is Sunny Igboanugo, I’m The Tiny Voice
I will always refer to the encounter I once had with Kenneth Idiodi. He was then the leader of the Rosicrucian Society in Nigeria, otherwise known as Amok. It was a sit-down at Zodiac Hotel Enugu. Then, I was the reporter of The Guardian in the Coal City.
You know the Amok faith bases its philosophy or belief on the law of Retributive Justice – the law of Karma. That is to say, everything you do in life has its rewards or punishment in equal measure – much like the measure you give, the measure you receive.
I don’t know how much this society draws or links this belief from or with the Bible, but I do recall Jesus Christ warning Simon Peter – return your sword to the scabbard – for he who kills by the sword, dies by the sword.
As a child growing up I listened to one of the epics of Oriental Brothers with the lyrics – ogbu mma ga-esi n’mma na, ogba egbe ga-esi n’egbe na ooo! Translated – he who kills by the sword will die by the sword, he who kills by the gun will die by the nozzle of the gun.
Now, here is where this is relevant in present Nigerian reality – the reason I’m putting details of that encounter out publicly once again, having done so previously.
During that encounter, Idiodi used one event in Nigeria to illustrate his point. He told me of a Nigerian leader who commanded the troop that carried out the Asaba massacre in the heat of the Nigerian civil war – an episode, said to have claimed over 2,000 able-bodied men who had come out to welcome the Nigerian soldiers with songs and dances only to fall in the hail of bullets that descended on them like rainstorms – was not spared by fate.
That commander was to meet his own death in a hail of bullets even as a Head of State. He never mentioned the name of the military top brass. But I used my tongue to count my teeth to come to the answer. You could also do same – use your tongue.
Now, how does this relate? You may have followed the outing of General Yakubu Gowon at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre, Abuja, where he presented his autobiography titled: My Life of Duty and Allegiance, that contained what seemed his memoir on the Nigerian civil war, which he prosecuted as Head of State.
I’m sure you must have been observing the debate therefrom that event. Now, I’m not so much enamoured of the debate as I’m of the nuances surrounding that unfortunate episode and the role of Gowon in it, given my takeaway from that Idiodi encounter some two decades ago.
Does Gowon, now a nonagenarian really believe that presenting a pious, if not saintly account of himself to the world as snippets of his book, which I picked up here and there suggests, truly suffices for the atrocities of that period?
Take the Asaba massacre for example. Was that the handiwork of Odumegwu Ojukwu, the Biafran leader, whom the former Head of State seems to blame for everything that went wrong. Was he also the one that commanded that mass slaughtering of innocent men?
Under your nose as Head of State, you watched citizens slaughtered mercilessly like infested herds in the streets – you watched young girls corralled into leprosy colonies and wantonly raped before being wasted – you watched as train coaches bearing people fleeing the scene were stopped and their human cargoes thrown alive into River Benue like rotten goods for fishes to feast on – you watched all these and didn’t lift a finger.
Then as Head of State, you not only supervised but watched millions of children with distended stomachs, tiny feet, glazy eyes, heavy heads on ropelike necks, practically begging for death to come quickly and save them from further punishment.
You supervised and watched the cataclysmic eruptions from the blitzkrieg on churches, markets and hospitals – all to keep Nigeria together. In your mind the brutal and merciless butchery of innocent people who were not soldiers and had nothing to do with the war could be explained away just like that?
O! It was Ojukwu that caused it. Ojukwu was the one who released the bombs, caused the blockades that led to the kwashiorkor that killed millions or other atrocities thereof? What a pity!
Now, I return to Idiodi. How else could anyone interpret today’s Nigeria without introducing the law of retributive justice that the Amok leader spoke of? How do you fault the link of the commander who massacred over 2,000 souls dying by the barrel of the same gun, even as Head of State?
How could anyone fail to relate what is happening to our Gowon today with the past? This is a Geneal that wakes up to see hundreds of his brothers and sisters being buried in mass graves as was done during the onslaught he supervised against another people and he still thinks it has nothing to do with him?
Now, the story you told at that event in Abuja on Tuesday, is not new. You simply repeated yourself. My interpretation of that event is that you’re a man undergoing daily torture. You wouldn’t be a human being otherwise, given what is before you, which didn’t start today.
You’re probably trying to escape your fate by appealing to public sympathy. How helpful could that be in the face of the clear evidence of your culpability in the deliberate wasting of more than three million souls? Nobody would believe you.
Yes! They could humour you. But that’s the best anyone could do for you. I hear money rained like a fountain and that you left the scene with billions of naira in your kitty. At 90? Haba General!
Now, here is the thing General. None of these would help.
None would work. You have tried prayers. But you forget that the prayer of sinner is an abomination and a reproach before God, unless he repents. You have also written the book. Surely, this too would end up in the trashcan of history – meaningless piece of conjectures, propaganda, half-truths and outright lies – perhaps!
But, why don’t you try the one thing you have been running away from, for more than five decades – go on your knees in total supplication and surrender, repentance and penance – then rise, call all Nigerians and empty yourself with the truth.
Thereafter openly apologise to the millions of souls whose tormenting wailing you probably hear every day during your disturbed sleep and in your quiet moments, but choose to suppress with these baby tales. Ask them for forgiveness, genuinely and see. There may lie the answer you seek.
Try that and see if it wouldn’t be a more efficacious cure for this decades-old wound than this Ojukwu-bashing and those wasted prayer sessions. You might not only have atoned for the past, but saved the future. May God guide you.
My name is Sunny Igboanugo, I’m The Tiny Voice
By MAX AMUCHIE | The Sunday Stew
In the last two weeks, Parts One and Two diagnosed a structural mutation in the Nigerian state: a dual sovereignty system in which the Institutional Mirage performs authority while the Shadow Order exercises it, sustained by The Insecurity Triad as a mechanism of mutual reproduction.
What remains is the hardest question in political theory: not what is happening, but whether it can be reversed.
The answer is yes—but not through reform.
Systems that reproduce decay cannot be repaired within their own logic. They must be structurally interrupted.
The Trinity does not collapse. It is displaced.
From Ritual Governance to Peripheral Presence
The first reversal targets the geography of illusion.
The Institutional Mirage is concentrated in the symbolic centre—where governance is performed through summits, communiqués, and administrative ceremony—while dissolving at the periphery where authority is actually tested.
This produces a distorted state: visible in Abuja, absent in the borderlands.
To reverse the Trinity, the state must abandon Ritual Governance—the substitution of performance for presence—and return to the empirical occupation of territory.
This is not military occupation. It is administrative presence as sovereignty.
A state exists not when it speaks in the capital, but when:
a child attends a functioning school without paying a parallel tax of fear;
a farmer harvests without negotiating with non-state authority;
a dispute is resolved by a recognised court faster than an armed intermediary.
Governance is not restored by declaration. It is restored by continuity.
Where state presence becomes routine, the Shadow loses its monopoly on predictability.
From Pacification Bargaining to Sovereign Integrity
The second reversal confronts a deeper failure: negotiated sovereignty.
The state has increasingly drifted into a system of Negotiated Sovereignty sustained through what may be described as Pacification Bargaining—the purchase of temporary calm from rival authority structures through ransom logic, amnesty arrangements, protection payments, or informal accommodation.
This is not strategy. It is dependency disguised as pragmatism.
Every bargain strengthens The Insecurity Triad by:
monetising abduction economies;
legitimising territorial extraction;
reinforcing the Shadow’s role as a negotiating sovereign.
The result is a system of self-financing violence in which each concession funds the next cycle of coercion.
Pacification Bargaining does not resolve insecurity. It institutionalises it.
Each transaction deepens the perception that coercion is profitable, territorial pressure is negotiable, and sovereign authority is conditional rather than absolute.
Sovereign recovery therefore requires rupture in this economy.
The state must reassert a non-negotiable monopoly over:
taxation;
adjudication;
legitimate force.
Integrity, in this context, is not moral posture. It is institutional refusal to participate in markets of coercion.
A state that bargains over its coercive authority is not managing insecurity—it is outsourcing sovereignty.
The Critical Break: Dismantling the Insecurity Triad
To dismantle The Insecurity Triad is to break the loop between performed sovereignty and enforced sovereignty.
This cannot be achieved through security operations alone, though coercive force remains an essential and non-negotiable instrument of restoring empirical sovereignty. It requires something deeper: the reconstruction of institutional credibility in the very spaces the Institutional Mirage has abandoned.
It requires the state to stop performing governance and start delivering it. To stop negotiating the terms of its own authority and start enforcing them.
To recover the map—not in abstraction, but in detail: name by name, community by community—that armed actors are actively redrawing through coercion, taxation, and enforced renaming.
Dismantling the Triad is therefore not only a security task. It is a reversal of political geography itself.
The Cartographic Re-occupation of the Republic
The Shadow Order does not only occupy land. It reorganises meaning.
Through what may be understood as Constitutional Erasure, it renames territories, restructures local identity, and replaces the symbolic map through which authority is recognised.
Once this occurs, sovereignty is no longer contested physically alone—it is contested cognitively.
Cartographic Re-occupation is therefore not symbolic politics. It is structural restoration.
It requires three coordinated acts.
First, administrative re-anchoring: the immediate restoration of functioning institutions—schools, clinics, courts, and local administration—under continuous state presence.
Second, symbolic restoration: the reassertion of original geographic and civic identities through formal public renaming and constitutional recognition.
Third, cognitive consolidation: governance must cease to appear as intervention and become the default condition of life.
The state is not restored when it returns to territory. It is restored when territory returns to the state’s cognitive map.
Intellectual Closure: The State After Fragmentation
The deeper insight of this architecture is that sovereignty in Nigeria is no longer singular.
What has emerged is a fragmented order in which authority is distributed between competing logics of governance—one performed, one enforced, both partially functional, neither complete.
This is where African political thought clarifies the structure beneath the surface.
The logic of adaptive survival described by Jean-François Bayart explains why the state persists even as it weakens. Achille Mbembe explains how survival itself becomes managed rather than guaranteed.
Together, they clarify the central claim of the Trinity: this is not collapse. It is reorganisation.
Closing Movement
Nigeria does not face a singular collapse of authority. It faces a structured competition between performed sovereignty and functional sovereignty.
The Mirage still speaks in the language of the state.
The Shadow still governs in the language of necessity.
Between them, society survives by navigating two competing logics of order.
The question is no longer who governs.
It is whether governance itself can be reassembled into a single coherent structure.
The Reversal Condition: Sequential Sovereignty Restoration
The Trinity is reversible, but only in sequence.
Protection must be restored before compliance can shift.
Compliance must shift before territorial credibility stabilises.
Territorial credibility must stabilise before institutional authority can move from performance to function.
Any inversion of this order produces relapse.
The system is not resistant to reform. It is resistant to mis-sequencing.
The Trinity reverses only when sovereignty becomes empirically enforceable again through the sequential reconstitution of protection, compliance, and territorial credibility, thereby disrupting the mutual reproduction loop between the Institutional Mirage and the Shadow Order sustained by The Insecurity Triad.
Where this sequence fails, the loop does not weaken. It adapts.
The Social Contract Is Not Broken — It Is Being Replaced
There can be no social contract in a state where the sovereign performs authority it does not possess, negotiates with rivals it cannot defeat, and watches—from the polished corridors of Abuja—as the names of its own communities are erased from the landscape it claims to govern.
The conventional framing of Nigeria’s crisis describes a broken social contract: the state has failed its obligations, and the people are paying the price.
That framing is not wrong. But it is insufficient.
A broken contract implies a single agreement that has lapsed—and the possibility, in principle, of renegotiation and restoration.
What the Trinity of State Decay reveals is something more structural.
The social contract is not merely broken. It is being replaced.
In the spaces where the Institutional Mirage does not reach—in the northwest, northeast, and Middle Belt, in renamed villages and abandoned farmlands—a rival contract is being written.
On rival terms. Under rival authority. With rival consequences for those who refuse to sign.
The Shadow Order does not offer freedom. It offers a different captivity—one organised around extraction, fear, and the brutal clarity of power that does not pretend to be something it is not.
Within its own logic, it is internally consistent and therefore predictable.
And in conditions where protection becomes uncertain and uneven, predictability itself begins to function as a substitute for legitimacy—not as consent, but as adaptation under constraint.
The Institutional Mirage, by contrast, sustains a different form of instability: the unpredictability of protection, the inconsistency of enforcement, and the performance of authority that does not reliably translate into outcomes.
It is this asymmetry—between predictable coercion and unpredictable protection—that accelerates the silent transfer of compliance from formal sovereignty to rival order.
Conventional state failure frameworks assume a linear erosion of capacity.
The Trinity departs from this by demonstrating a dual-state condition in which formal and rival sovereignties coexist, interact, and reinforce decay.
Nigeria is not a failed state.
It is a state in the grip of a Trinity.
The Definition
Drawing on the full architecture of the foregoing analysis, I now offer a formulation of the Trinity of State Decay theory:
The Trinity of State Decay is the decoupling of a state into rival sovereignties: the Institutional Mirage, which performs authority without fully possessing it, and the Shadow Order—or competing Shadow Orders—which exercises de facto authority in spaces the Mirage has vacated, both sustained by The Insecurity Triad as the mechanism of their mutual reproduction.
The Trinity intensifies where the Mirage fragments into competing centres of performed authority, accelerating the transfer of empirical sovereignty to rival structures.
The Trinity reverses only when sovereignty becomes empirically enforceable again as a stable condition of governance.
This condition is not defined by the mere presence of the state, but by the alignment of three realities: protection must be enforceable, compliance must orient toward the state, and territorial authority must remain continuous.
Where these diverge, sovereignty fragments.
Where they converge, sovereignty reconstitutes.
Recovery is not repair or return. It is the production of a new equilibrium in which the Mirage collapses into function, the Shadow is displaced, and The Insecurity Triad loses its organising role.
This condition is produced through sequence: protection must precede compliance, compliance must precede territorial credibility, and territorial credibility must precede institutional function. Any inversion produces relapse; where the sequence holds, the loop breaks.
While derived from the Nigerian case, the Trinity offers a generalisable framework for analysing state decay in contexts where formal sovereignty persists alongside entrenched systems of rival governance.
Stay seasoned.
•Concluded
•Dr. Max Amuchie is the CEO of Sundiata Post and architect of The Insecurity Triad Analytical Framework, and the Trinity of State Decay theory. He writes The Sunday Stew, a weekly syndicated column on faith, character, and the forces that shape society, with a focus on Nigeria and Africa in a global context.
X — @MaxAmuchie | Email: max.a@sundiatapost.com | Tel: +234(0)8053069436
Godwin Obaseki, former Governor of Edo State was the first to raise the alarm. He rang the bell in the most dramatic manner in that video that went viral on the heels of the 2023 presidential election. It was about the impending tsunami confronting the Nigerian political space – the Peter Obi phenomenon!
The forum the ex-governor spoke was supposed to be a family meeting – a kitchen cabinet affair, where he interacted with the inner caucus of his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in his state. But he ended up not only alerting the nation, but passing the message about the new reality in the must pungent, direct and unobtrusive manner – something new has come – Peter Obi.
Whether it was meant to be a warning, an admonition or simply a subject of amusement – as the governor seemed tickled while delivering it – Obaseki’s words in that outing hit the right spot in national consciousness across board. The young, the old, the healthy and the infirm, all heard it clearly. Now whatever they did individually remains a different kettle of fish.
In that encounter, Obaseki had told his audience how, despite being a governor and the engine room of the PDP in the state, his own family had turned against him with all children and other young members enlisting into the Obidient Movement and how that was true of every other family in Nigeria.
Now, was Obaseki’s depiction false? Didn’t it come to pass on February 25, 2023, when Nigerians went to the polls? If Yakubu Mahmoud and his INEC had not contrived that technical glitches arrangement to abjure the mandate of the people in line with the grab, snatch and run philosophy of the present beneficiary of that obvious heist, Obi certainly would have been Nigerian President.
Had that happened, Obi’s would have been not only a clean and wholesome mandate, untainted by the paintbrush of rigging or other electoral infamies bespattering previous efforts, it would have been a national mandate – delivered by the people of Nigeria – likened only to Moshood Abiola’s June 12, 1993 presidential election victory.
In fact, so pan-Nigerian was the Peter Obi effort that Nigerians of all ethnic and religious persuasions came together and on their own, in clusters, within housing estates, in villages and communities, contributed money to fund their individual campaigns to promote the project of getting him to the Aso Rock Villa for the nation’s number one job.
Nigerians abroad – Yoruba – Hausa – Ibibio – Jukun – Igala – Tiv – Kalabari – Igbo – Edo – made special arrangements to return home with the sole purpose of not only promoting the agenda, but actually making the idea a reality by casting their votes for him.
Obi was the only one out of the lot that contested the election in 2023 that secured the endorsement of virtually all the ethic organisations across Nigeria.
Afenifere – the pan-Yoruba socio-cultural organisation – the Middle-Belt Forum (MBF) from the North Central – Pan-Niger Delta Forum PANDEF – for the South South region and Ohanaeze – their South East counterpart – all came together to declare their support for his presidential ambition.
Now this is the same person that some naysayers are labouring too hard, day and night to closet inside the straightjacket of ethnicity and religion. From Reno Omokri to Daniel Bwala to Bayo Onanuga and others controlling working from the Presidency to their counterparts at the Blantyre Plaza APC secretariat in Abuja – they continue to trumpet the spurious, bogus and fake narrative of Obi’s ambition being steeped in some sort of Igbo agenda.
Ironically, out of the entire lot, the selfsame Obi, is the only one who came out to boldly declare that nobody should cast a vote for him because he is Igbo, rather, they should do so because they are convinced about his ability to deliver on a new Nigeria of their dreams. No other had the courage to make such a bold declaration.
Surprisingly, even Wole Soyinka, one of Nigeria’s most iconic figures – a central voice in national and international affairs – Nigeria’s man of the century – the Kongi himself – who had hitherto shot himself to a position of a super being – of immortality – beyond reproach – without any credible reason even by his own conjecture – called the Obi ambition – an IPOB agenda.
That underscores the seriousness of the entire scenario. But interestingly, no matter how they try to trumpet it, their efforts have continued to mimic a snake striking at the shell of the tortoise with the aim of infusing its killer poison.
Their frustration not only hinges on this apparent failure but their current desperation too! The Obi brand has continued to soar beyond comprehension. So, when you hear the echoes of ethnic baiting, religious smears or other primordial sentiments, just know they are trying to increase the tempo of the din! Such a frustrating task!
My name is Sunny Igboanugo, I’m The Tiny Voice!
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