Opinion
2023: Tinubu’s desperation and long lost political empire
Published
4 years agoon
No empire lasts forever. History is filled with examples of even the most powerful empires that have crumbled either due to implosion or explosion. As powerful and formidable as the Roman, Carthage, Assyrian, Persian, and Babylonian empires were, they all crumbled due to their inability to withstand sustained pressures or currents. Therefore, no empire – no matter how formidably built – is too big or powerful to crumble.
Just like the great empires of old, the political empire of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, former Governor of Lagos state is crumbling right before our eyes. Yet, he thinks or he is deluded to believe that he is waxing stronger politically.
This was exactly what the captain of TITANIC – the biggest ship in the early 20th century – thought. He was quoted to have said the ship was too big to sink that even God will not allow it to wreck. As though by some stroke of fate, that night, the ship sank and that was the last time it saw the sun.
Tinubu’s supporters have told everyone who cares to listen that he single-handedly installed the current administration of All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015. To them, he is politically invincible. Tinubu’s empire, to them, is waxing stronger when it’s actually crumbling. Nobody is telling him just yet or truthful enough to him that the ground has shifted beneath him since 2015 when he thought to overstretch his so-called empire.
In 2015, in trying to prove his political invincibility after the presidential election, he thought about gaining control of the leadership of the National Assembly.
Controlling the National Assembly, he thought, will strengthen his hands to control the APC-led administration. Of course, we all know how the June 2015 NASS leadership election went. Like Napoleon’s 1812 invasion of Moscow, his ego suffered badly. The signs were clear, but he whom the gods will kill, he first makes blind!
The emperor of a crumbling empire later took his sights to Kogi state. The APC had a bright chance of winning the Kogi gubernatorial election in 2015. Former Governor Abubakar Audu won the party’s ticket and Tinubu lobbied for one of his boys, James Faleke, a member of the House of Representatives representing Ikeja, Lagos to be Audu’s running mate. Tinubu knew about Audu’s failing health. So, he thought with Faleke he would effectively get to control Kogi. As fate will have it, Audu died just before the elections were concluded with APC in clear lead. The debate as to who inherits his votes arose. It was up to the APC leadership to decide. Tinubu’s boy Faleke was everywhere insisting he should be the one to inherit Audu’s vote being the running mate. The law was clear on the matter that the votes should go to the runner up in the APC primary. This was how the party picked Yahya Bello, the current Governor of the state. Tinubu again left Kogi empty handed.
Desperate for a victory to boost the morale of his supporters, his sights were in Ondo state. Ondo state has a history of resisting emperors. This explains why Ondo was never under the Oyo Empire. While Benin conquered Akure, it soon declared its independence in the 1890s. Emperor Tinubu thought he could subjugate Ondo state in 2016. He tried imposing Olusola Oke (formerly of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP) as the APC gubernatorial candidate against the more tested and independent-minded Rotimi Akeredolu who was the party’s flag bearer in 2012 under ACN. Akeredolu won the APC ticket against all Tinubu’s treacherous scheming. Oke later went to the Alliance for Democracy (AD). Well, as history will have it, APC won the election without Tinubu. In fact, some analysts think ACN’s Akeredolu would have won the gubernatorial election in 2012 if not for too much of Tinubu’s influence. Tinubu did not realize how much of a political liability he had become in the scheme of things.
In 2018, he tried to control Ekiti state. His least favoured candidate, Kayode Fayemi, won both the APC primary and the election. Tinubu was again humbled. He largely kept a safe distance from the state. Fayemi realized he does not need baggage like Tinubu for his 2018 campaign after his 2014 fisco.
In Osun state, Tinubu deployed all measures he had. He could not afford to lose Osun, his home state. He insisted on his cousin, Gboyega Oyetola, becoming APC’s flag bearer. Despite being the ruling party in the state, APC struggled to retain a state that is naturally a Progressives’ fortress. Even with “almighty” Tinubu spending his very last blood.
The signs of his crumbling empire began showing after the Osun Governorship election. His erstwhile lieutenant, Rauf Aregbesola, largely fell out with him. To spite his former master, he was appointed as Minister of Interior, after APC’s victory in the 2019 election. Tinubu has not found it funny ever since.
Nobody likes to be told the hard truths. It is understandable if none of Tinubu’s subordinates are telling him his political empire and fortunes are waxing stronger when in fact, it’s waning. Tinubu is simply desperate to re-assert himself politically for relevance. The signs are getting clearer to him even though his core supporters are not getting the message. He is contesting for president that he is sure to lose only to prove a point. He is using the last remaining crumbs of his relevance to bully South-West Traditional Rulers to save his political fortunes. He has visited a number of them. These Traditional Rulers – most of whom he helped install – don’t necessarily support his political ambition. They are simply urging the Emperor to keep dancing in his “new clothes” when he is actually dancing naked!
Tinubu’s empire has long crumbled and 2023 would show just that.
Adigun, a public affairs analyst, writes from Lagos
Posted by Olalekan Adigun | 18 April 2022, 10:59pm
You may like
News
The man who saw tomorrow: Senator Akpabio and the uncommon politics of certainty
Published
4 days agoon
May 20, 2026
By Hon Eseme Eyiboh
Let us begin with a confession. There is something unsettling about a politician who no longer appears to struggle.
In the turbulent theatre of Nigerian politics, where noise is often mistaken for relevance, where primaries resemble wrestling contests and delegate management demands the instincts of a hostage negotiator, a man who walks in unopposed does not merely win. He transforms the entire contest into a rehearsal.
On Monday, May 18, 2026, at Methodist Primary School, Ukana, in Essien Udim Local Government Area, Senator Godswill Akpabio did exactly that. No contest. No drama. No nervous counting of votes. He simply emerged as the candidate of the All Progressives Congress for the Akwa Ibom North West Senatorial District without a single challenger.
While many politicians remain trapped in the exhausting rituals of horse trading, factional bargaining, and survival politics, Akpabio’s good works delivered something far rarer in Nigeria’s political environment than gold itself. Absolute consensus.
To the casual observer, an unopposed return may suggest the absence of competition. That would be a dangerously shallow interpretation.
Those familiar with the political phenomenon long associated with the “Uncommon Transformer” understand the distinction clearly. An unopposed ticket does not mean nobody desired to contest. Politics naturally attracts ambition the way light attracts insects. Power always generates interest. Influence always provokes aspiration.
What an unopposed return truly means is far more significant: potential challengers surveyed the landscape, studied the numbers, weighed the networks, measured the emotional connection between the man and the political structure around him, and quietly concluded that the road to victory simply did not exist.
There is a profound difference between lack of opposition and the collapse of viable opposition
Why is there no road to victory for others? Because what Akpabio has built in Akwa Ibom State in general and Akwa Ibom North West in particular is no longer merely a political structure. It is a fortress. Its walls are not made of concrete. They are made of cultivated loyalty. Enduring networks. Strategic generosity. And the unspoken understanding that confronting him politically is not simply difficult. It is often futile and absurd.
The atmosphere at the ward centre resembled less a political exercise and more a carnival of affirmation. Supporters, community leaders, women groups, youths, and party faithful gathered not to determine an outcome but to endorse a grace carrier already settled in the public imagination. The votes were counted without end. The votes were celebrated.
Here is the remarkable part.
The whispers surrounding Akpabio’s dominance do not come only from admirers. They come from seeming opponents too.
They do not fear his voice. They fear his results. They do not tremble at confrontation. They confront something more sobering: the recognition that within his political territory, the arithmetic has been solved with almost clinical precision.
While others are still assembling coalitions, Akpabio consolidated his long ago. While rivals continue calculating delegate figures, he has already moved to the next question: what happens after victory? How does political power translate into enduring relevance and measurable impact?
That is the distinction between a career politician and a political architect. One chases office. The other shapes the terrain on which the chase itself occurs.
Since assuming office as President of the 10th Senate, Akpabio has projected a measure of stability within the Red Chamber. That should not be understated.
The Nigerian Senate has earned a reputation for turbulence over the years. Leadership rebellions. Internal fractures. Floor dramas that generate headlines while weakening governance and social democratic structures. Against that backdrop, a Senate President capable of maintaining institutional stability without recurring crises becomes more than merely effective. He becomes uncommon.
His admirers see in him a politician who has consistently combined institutional authority with emotional loyalty from his base through the National to International arena. From Governor to Minister to Senate President, his rise is framed as the journey of a man who understood tomorrow before others arrived there. A politician deeply conscious of timing, alignment, and the delicate craft of converting social capital into durable influence and uncommon power (political capital).
This point matters enormously. Political capital is easy to squander. This point matters enormously. Political goodwill is easy to destroy. Many politicians exhaust it through arrogance, exclusion, or the endless pursuit of personal advantage. But Akpabio appears to understand something deeper about leadership: goodwill grows when people genuinely feel seen, valued, included, and carried along.
Over the years, he has cultivated relationships not merely through politics, but through accessibility, generosity of spirit, loyalty to associates, and an unusual ability to make people feel remembered even in the midst of high office. That is why his support structure often appears less like a coalition held together by convenience and more like a community bound by shared experience and enduring personal connection.
What some interpret merely as political dominance may actually be the long-term harvest of sustained human investment.
And perhaps that explains the ease with which the field gradually cleared around him. Not because opposition was forcibly silenced, but because many within the political environment saw little wisdom in disrupting a consensus built around continuity, stability, experience, and an existing relationship of trust.
His commitment to continue working closely with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Umo Eno reinforces a broader message of continuity and strategic alignment. At a time when fragmentation remains the temptation of many ambitious actors, Senator Akpabio has chosen coordination. That is not a weakness. It is political arithmetic.
And this is where the conversation shifts from the present to the near future. The same political capital that secured his senatorial return without resistance is not a one-use currency. It accumulates. It compounds. The goodwill he has cultivated, the equilibrium he has maintained, and the pragmatic preference for results over rhetoric are not merely tools for another Senate term. They form the foundation of something larger and forthcoming.
The crystal ball is not required to observe the trajectory. A Senate President who secures his own return effortlessly, stabilises a chamber historically associated with instability, aligns himself with the centre of national power grid while maintaining grassroots legitimacy, is a Senate President who has solved one of Nigerian politics’ most difficult equations.
He has demonstrated to his colleagues that he can deliver. He has shown the party hierarchy that he can be trusted. He has reassured constituents that proximity to power has not disconnected him from them.
This combination is rarer than any single attribute standing alone. So when the 11th Senate eventually convenes and the question of leadership emerges once again, the conversation may prove shorter than many anticipate. Not because there will be no interested contenders. There always are. But because the arithmetic of loyalty, institutional experience, strategic alignment, and demonstrated political capacity will already have completed its quiet work.
Akpabio has not formally declared interest in leading the 11th Senate. He does not need to. The declaration already exists in the pattern of his movements, the stability of his stewardship, and the political field he has cleared without visible strain. It is simply the discipline of reading political signs as they present themselves* .
In the end, Nigerian politics rewards those who understand the people more deeply than those who merely master performance and noise.That is not sentimentality. It is a political reality.
A politician capable of delivering his constituency without violence, panic, or emergency intervention is a politician who understands something fundamental: power is never truly declared. It is demonstrated. And it is demonstrated most convincingly when nobody steps forward to challenge it.
On that Monday in Ukana, the drums rolled. Praises echoed across the gathering. And the political message arrived without ambiguity. In Akwa Ibom North West, the conversation has moved beyond opposition. What remains is an audience waiting to see the next chapter unfold without ceasing.
Senator Godswill Akpabio has once again reminded observers that in certain political spaces, dominance is not always loud.
Sometimes, it is simply complete. And in the intricate chessboard of Nigerian politics, where many players are still learning how the pieces move, that level of mastery remains rare, consequential, and deeply potent.
The man who saw tomorrow understood something else too. The loudest voice in the room is rarely the one that prevails.
The one that prevails is the one that no longer needs to shout because everybody already understands. And that is what Senator Godswill Akpabio has demonstrated that he is the man who saw tomorrow.
Rt Hon Eseme Eyiboh mnipr is a former member and Spokesperson of the House of Representatives and currently Special Adviser, Media/Publicity and official Spokesperson to the President of the Senate
News
Senate rule amendment: Why the debate should be about institutional stability, not personalities
Published
5 days agoon
May 18, 2026

News
Oshiomhole: Akpabio continues to project leadership rooted in partnership, not division
Published
2 weeks agoon
May 11, 2026

News Editor:
08054103450
May 23, 2026 8:02 pm
May 23, 2026 8:02 pm
Trending
-
News3 weeks agoBREAKING: Makinde, Turaki, lose! *S’Court affirms Wike’s PDP leadership
-
News1 week agoTinubu to African leaders: Copy Nigeria, produce your way out of poverty
-
Features3 weeks agoJim Nwobodo: The Sun shines, thrills, at ‘The Vanguard Awards’
-
News4 days agoBREAKING: US-Nigeria troops slaughter 175 ISWAP fighters
-
News1 week agoWhy we pegged presidential ticket forms at N60million – NDC
-
News1 week agoGowon on civil war: My book is to put records straight, remove falsehood
-
News2 weeks agoBREAKING! Coast brightens for Obi, as NDC zones presidency to South
-
Columns1 day agoDear General Gowon: That apology you’re running from is your nemesis
