According to Muhammadu Sanusi, the Emir of Kano, the Jonathan administration abandoned its fuel subsidy removal plan in 2011 primarily because of security concerns linked to the ongoing Boko Haram crisis.
Speaking at Tuesday’s Oxford Global Think Tank Leadership Conference in Abuja, Sanusi—who led the Central Bank of Nigeria between 2009 and 2014—attributed Nigeria’s present economic challenges to the postponement of subsidy removal over ten years ago.
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“The only reason the government compromised at that time and did 50 per cent to 100 per cent was Boko Haram. There were thousands of Nigerians on the streets in Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, and other cities.
“There was a fear that one day, one of these suicide bombers would go to these Nigerians and explode bombs, and you would have 200 corpses, it would no longer be about subsidy,” he explained.
While acknowledging the difficult circumstances, the former central bank chief praised Jonathan’s commitment to pursuing the economic reform.
“You have to give President Jonathan the credit. He was determined to do it, but at the end of the day, the compromise was made to save Nigerian lives,” he said.
Sanusi argued that implementing the subsidy removal at that time would have caused significantly less economic distress than what citizens currently experience.
“If Nigerians had allowed the Jonathan government to remove the subsidy in 2011, there would have been pain. But that pain would have been a very tiny fraction of what we are facing today. This is the cause of the delay,” he said.
According to the former CBN governor, the institution had completed detailed projections regarding the reform’s potential effects.
“We worked out the numbers in the Central Bank. I stood up and put my credibility on the line and said, remove the subsidy today. Inflation moves up from 11 per cent to 13 per cent, I will bring it down in a year,” he said.
He emphasized that Nigeria’s current inflation exceeding 30 percent could have been avoided through earlier policy action.
“We talk about these things because it’s important. There is a kind of poetic justice that it is actually the people who led the Occupy Nigeria movement who ended up inheriting the problem and having to do it,” he said.
When President Bola Tinubu took office on May 29, 2023, he immediately declared an end to the nation’s long-standing fuel subsidy program during his inaugural speech.
Originally established during the 1970s to maintain affordable petroleum prices, the subsidy had evolved into a substantial drain on government resources.
Tinubu’s subsidy elimination, which received support from global financial organizations, sought to improve fiscal stability.
Nevertheless, the policy triggered steep rises in fuel costs, transport expenses, and food prices, worsening the affordability crisis. Throughout 2024, inflation climbed beyond 30%, with approximately half the population experiencing poverty.
Detractors contend the measure aggravated economic suffering, while advocates maintain it represented essential progress toward fiscal sustainability and future economic prosperity.