By Okey Okwusogu

In the evolving political landscape of Nigeria, concerns are mounting that the country may be inching toward a de facto one-party state under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. Since his inauguration in May 2023, a wave of high-profile defections from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has reshaped the nation’s multiparty democracy. Governors from states like Delta, Enugu, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Plateau, and Taraba have crossed over, swelling APC’s ranks to potentially 28 governors.

This trend, coupled with allegations of federal interference in opposition crises, has sparked debates about the erosion of political pluralism and the risks of authoritarian consolidation. While APC officials dismiss these claims as baseless, insisting there’s no plot to monopolize power, critics like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar warn of an “existential threat” to democracy, potentially leading to a civilian dictatorship.

This shift raises a critical question: If Nigeria solidifies into a one-party dominant system, could it face the kind of revolutionary upheaval or overthrow seen in other nations historically? Drawing from past examples of one-party states crumbling under popular pressure, this article explores the possibilities, weighing Nigeria’s unique context against global precedents.

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 The Current Trajectory: From Multiparty Vibrancy to APC Hegemony?

 Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999 marked the end of military rule, ushering in a competitive multiparty system. However, under the current dispensation the terrain to some Nigerians is being viewed as opaque from an oblique perspective, the political arena appears increasingly lopsided to most critic.

Defections are often attributed to patronage, protection from investigations, or alignment ahead of the 2027 elections, rather than ideological shifts. For instance, Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s recent switch to APC followed intense political pressure, including suspensions and reinstatements, fueling accusations of intimidation. Similarly, Plateau Governor Caleb Mutfwang’s defection in early 2026 has been cited as evidence of a broader strategy to consolidate power.

Opposition figures argue this is not mere political maneuvering but a deliberate push toward one-party rule. Atiku has accused the administration of “shrinking democratic space” by weakening rivals like the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) through engineered internal conflicts. Even within the PDP, former chairman Umar Damagum alleged leadership’s camp was fueling divisions to pave the way for unchallenged dominance.Social media echoes these fears, with users warning that Nigeria risks becoming “a one-party system like Lagos under Tinubu’s long influence. “Proponents of this view point to past statements, including skepticism about “one Nigeria,” as indicators of a deeper agenda.

Yet, not all see doom. APC chieftains like Senator Magnus Abe counter that defections are voluntary and reflect effective governance, not coercion. They argue Nigeria is experiencing “dominant-party politics” rather than outright one-party rule, a phase seen in other democracies like South Africa under the ANC. Tinubu himself has publicly disavowed support for a one-party state, emphasizing democratic choice. Still, with economic hardships—rising inflation, fuel subsidies removal, and currency devaluation—exacerbating public discontent, the stage is set for potential unrest if opposition voices are further marginalized.

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 Historical Precedents: When One-Party States Collapse

 History offers stark lessons on how entrenched one-party systems can unravel through revolutions or uprisings. The most salient examples come from the Revolutions of 1989 in Eastern Europe, where communist one-party regimes, backed by Soviet influence, fell amid economic stagnation and popular demands for freedom.

 In East Germany, the Socialist Unity Party’s monopoly crumbled under peaceful protests known as the Peaceful Revolution. Starting with small demonstrations in 1989, they swelled into millions, culminating in the Berlin Wall’s fall and reunification with West Germany. Key factors included economic decline, loss of legitimacy, and Gorbachev’s Soviet reforms withdrawing external support.

 Czechoslovakia’s Velvet Revolution followed a similar non-violent path. Student-led protests and a general strike in November 1989 forced the Communist Party to cede power, installing dissident Václav Havel as president. Here, civil society mobilization and elite defections were pivotal.

 Romania’s case was bloodier: Widespread protests in December 1989 escalated into armed clashes, leading to the execution of dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu and the end of the Romanian Communist Party’s rule. Repression backfired, turning public anger into violent overthrow.

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 Poland’s transition began earlier with the Solidarity movement in the 1980s, evolving into semi-free elections in 1989 that dismantled the Polish United Workers’ Party’s dominance. Economic crises and worker strikes eroded the regime’s base.

 Beyond communism, Portugal’s 1974 Carnation Revolution saw a military coup, backed by civilian protests, topple the authoritarian Estado Novo—a de facto one-party system under the National Union. Economic woes from colonial wars and public fatigue with repression fueled the change.

 These cases illustrate that one-party states are vulnerable when faced with economic hardship, loss of external backing, internal divisions, and sustained mobilization. Peaceful revolutions succeeded where civil society was organized, while violence erupted in more repressive contexts.

 Possibilities in Nigeria: Revolution or Resilient Dominance?

 Applying these lessons to Nigeria, the prospects of a revolution or overthrow hinge on several factors. First, economic distress mirrors the 1989 triggers: Tinubu’s reforms, while aimed at long-term stability, have inflicted immediate pain, with inflation soaring and poverty deepening. Past protests like #EndSARS in 2020 demonstrated Nigerians’ capacity for mass action against perceived injustices, potentially amplifying if one-party dominance stifles accountability.

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 Second, opposition fragmentation could either prevent or provoke upheaval. If defections continue, reducing viable alternatives, it might lead to apathy or radicalization. Critics warn of a “Machiavellian approach” where Tinubu “pockets” politicians, but this could alienate the public if policies fail to deliver. A united opposition coalition, as suggested by some, involving figures like Atiku, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso under a neutral platform, might counter this—but disunity risks ceding ground.

Third, Nigeria’s diversity—ethnic, religious, and regional—complicates one-party consolidation. Unlike Eastern Europe’s homogeneous regimes, attempts to centralize power could ignite sectional tensions, as seen in warnings that “Nigeria is not Lagos. Historical military coups in Africa, like those in Sierra Leone or Gambia, often ended one-party eras, but Nigeria’s post-1999 stability suggests civilian uprisings or elite pacts are more likely.

However, revolution isn’t inevitable. Nigeria’s judiciary, media, and civil society remain robust, potentially checking excesses. If Tinubu’s administration delivers on infrastructure and security, dominance could endure without backlash, akin to long-ruling parties elsewhere. Yet, as one analyst notes, “a one-party system is the most dangerous” for democracy, risking complacency and corruption.

A Crossroads for Nigerian Democracy

Nigeria’s potential slide into one-party dominance under Tinubu evokes the fragility of systems like those in 1989 Eastern Europe. While peaceful revolutions there show people power can prevail, Nigeria’s context—marked by economic volatility and diverse interests—could either foster similar change or entrench the status quo. The key lies in whether public discontent translates into organized action or dissipates amid patronage. As history warns, ignoring these signs risks not just political monopoly, but the explosive unrest that follows. For now, the nation watches, hoping pluralism endures.

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 *Okwusogu, an intelligence analyst wrote in from Abuja, Nigeria

By Akpandem James

The Nigerian oil and gas industry has frequently been in the news for various reasons. Decades before the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) was enacted in August 2021, the country’s oil and gas exploration sector faced significant challenges due to unclear rules, changing policies and low investor confidence. This was in spite of its key role in the country’s economy. These issues reduced investment funds, delayed project execution and weakened its ability to compete in the rapidly changing global energy market. The PIA altered the narrative. It came with provisions to clarify rules, separate government roles and ensure fiscal stability. Presidential Orders followed, to make things easier for operators and clearer for investors.

The results are obvious today, but the impact could not have been so pronounced if not for the resolve of sector regulators to translate legislation into action. The increasing improvements recorded in investment disposition, operational transparency and sector stability highlight the significance of sustained policy implementation in repositioning the country’s petroleum industry for long-term growth. To reflect current realities, recently there was a transition in the boards and management of the two industry regulators: the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream/Downstream Regulatory Agency (NMDPRA).

The twin issues of regulatory stability and operational accountability have often been the nightmare of operators and investors. These weigh more heavily on the regulators, and more on NUPRC, given its unique interface with global players, including local and international partners and stakeholders, as well as its obligation to align with global best practices. Any seeming hiccup in the chain could trigger apprehension. It is against this backdrop that leadership continuity at the NUPRC assumed notable significance, informing the resolve of the new leadership of the regulatory institutions to deepen collaboration, sustain sectoral momentum, drive growth across the oil and gas value chain and strengthen investor confidence.

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On Tuesday, December 23, 2025, Engineer Gbenga Komolafe, after four years of transformative leadership, formally handed over the reins at the NUPRC to Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, a seasoned industry professional. The smooth transition signalled continuity in regulatory accountability and a renewed commitment to strengthening regulation and sustaining investor confidence, two critical enablers of a thriving petroleum sector. As the pioneer head of the Commission, Eng. Komolafe laid the foundation for a robust regulatory framework and strengthened accountability. Mrs. Eyesan is committed to building on this legacy by fully digitizing operations, increasing production and enhancing transparency to strengthen sectoral gains.

Mrs Eyesan brings more than three decades of industry experience to the role. She retired from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) in November 2024 as Executive Vice President, Upstream, where she oversaw Nigeria’s upstream petroleum operations. Often, leadership transitions in critical sectors raise concerns about policy direction and operational continuity. In this case, however, such fears do not arise, given the shared vision of repositioning Nigeria’s oil and gas sector as a global reference point in line with the PIA mandate. She made this clear when sharing her vision. It focuses on boosting oil and gas production, attracting investment and turning the Commission into a business enabler. She plans to drive this through digital tools, enhanced openness and staff capacity development.  Her open-door policy emphasises regular engagement with staff, as well as internal and external stakeholders.

The new Commission Chief Executive, since assuming, has consistently articulated a clear mandate to advance Nigeria’s upstream sector in line with the PIA. She has reiterated her commitment to making the Commission a business enabler and reigniting upstream investments, while setting firm production targets to grow crude oil and gas output. “The goal is that we must enable the industry; we are regulators. We must enable the industry through our interactions with stakeholders and with everyone. My main objective is to ensure that we make a difference. I believe the NUPRC is at the centre of the industry,” she said. With stakeholder cooperation, she remains confident of achieving tangible results, telling staff: “If we work together, we can unleash opportunities. I don’t see impediments, only opportunities.”

Her familiarity with regulatory requirements and capacity to deliver have been attested to by the African Energy Chamber (AEC), which hailed her appointment. The AEC Chairman, N. J. Ayuk, in a statement, expressed confidence in her leadership, saying it would further strengthen private-sector confidence and position Nigeria as Africa’s leading investment destination for oil and gas.

Reinforcing the importance of regulatory stability and accountability, Ayuk noted that global investors are increasingly selective as competition for capital intensifies across both frontier and established markets. He observed that regulatory credibility, transparency and predictability have become decisive factors, adding that slow and unpredictable approval processes, marked by lengthy permitting timelines, unclear requirements and frequent changes, have historically deterred investment in Nigeria. These issues have already been carefully considered and are currently being addressed through the Presidential Orders of 2024 and 2025.

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Recognising that the sector cannot be effectively driven in silos, the NUPRC leadership has already taken steps to deepen collaboration with the NMDPRA to eliminate regulatory bottlenecks and boost investor confidence. Within two weeks of assuming office, Mrs. Eyesan met with the leadership of the sister agency and both agreed to strengthen cooperation. A joint team has since been assembled to identify and resolve regulatory issues, ensure seamless regulation across the value chain and promote the overall interests of the industry. She believes that collaboration between the two regulators is essential, as both institutions drive growth in the sector.

“Whether we are talking about upstream, midstream or downstream, we are enablers for the industry, and the industry is the heartbeat of the nation’s economy,” she said. “We cannot achieve sustainable growth if we do not work together. Sometimes there is no fine line between upstream, midstream and downstream, and lack of coordination can create problems. I believe this marks the beginning of many more engagements.”

Echoing this sentiment, the NMDPRA Chief Executive, Aliyu Mohammed, underscored the need for harmonious cooperation, noting the agencies’ shared heritage as offshoots of the defunct Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR). He craves stronger relationships and amicable resolution of differences, noting that closer collaboration would improve regulatory efficiency and attract investment, with long-term benefits for the national economy.

Recently, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu nominated a seasoned lawmaker and industry insider, Senator Magnus Abe, for Senate confirmation as Chairman of the NUPRC Board. A renowned lawyer from Rivers State, Senator Abe has been associated with the petroleum sector through legislative oversight and reforms, including contributing to the framework of the PIA 2021. He served as a member of the NNPC Board and is currently Chairman of the National Agency for the Great Green Walls. With a Commission Chief Executive boasting over three decades of industry experience and a Board Chairman of proven pedigree, operators and investors in Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector can draw renewed confidence.

• James, an Abuja-based communication consultant, is a Fellow of the Nigerian Guild of Editors and member of the International Press Institute (IPI).

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