News
With Tinubu’s N34trillion new loans, Nigeria’s debt heads for N180trillion
Nigeria’s public debt is set to exceed N180 trillion, following President Bola Tinubu’s request to the National Assembly, seeking approval for additional external and domestic loans totalling N34.15 trillion, Vanguard is reporting.
President Tinubu in letters to federal lawmakers at the Senate and House of Representatives on Tuesday, sought approval for a new external borrowing plan of over $21.5 billion, which translates to N33.39 trillion at the official exchange rate of N1,590 per dollar as well as domestic bond issuance of N757.9 billion to settle outstanding pension liabilities.
The letters read separately in both chambers, by Godswill Akpabio, President of the Senate, and Tajudeen Abbas Speaker of the House, quoted Tinubu as highlighting the strategic significance of the 2025–2026 borrowing plan, noting that it spanned key sectors of the economy.
Tinubu said: “The 2025–2026 borrowing plan covers all sectors, with specific emphasis on infrastructure, agriculture, health, education, water supply, growth, security, and employment generation, as well as financial and monetary reforms, among others.”
He explained that the total facility sought under the external borrowing plan includes USD 21,543,647,912; EUR 2,193,856,324.54; and 15 billion Japanese Yen, in addition to a grant of 65 million EUR.
Tinubu, who noted that the proposed borrowing is crucial, in light of removal of fuel subsidy and its economic implications, said: “In light of the significant infrastructure deficit in the country and paucity of financial resources needed to address this gap, amid declining domestic demand, it has become essential to pursue prudent economic borrowing to close the financial shortfall.”
He assured lawmakers that the proposed funds will be channeled into critical infrastructure projects, especially in the areas of railways, healthcare, and nationwide development programmes across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, FCT.
“This initiative aims to generate employment, promote skill acquisition, foster entrepreneurship, reduce poverty, and enhance food security, as well as improve the livelihoods of Nigerians,” he emphasized.
In another letter, President Tinubu sought NASS’ approval for the issuance of Federal Government bonds in the domestic market to settle accrued pension liabilities under the Contributory Pension Scheme, CPS, amounting to N757,983,246,572.
The President, who cited the Pension Reform Act 2014, noted that the government had been unable to comply with some statutory pension obligations due to revenue challenges, leading to a buildup of arrears and increasing hardship for retirees.
He said: “The Senate, House of Representatives are invited to note that the Federal Government has not been compliant with the implementation of the above provisions of the PRA 2014 over the years due to revenue challenges leading to the accumulation of pension arrears with the attendant suffering of retirees.”
Tinubu noted that the proposal to issue bonds for the settlement of the liabilities had received approval from the Federal Executive Council, FEC, in its meeting of February 4, 2025.
According to him, settling the pension arrears will improve retirees’ welfare, boost confidence in the pension system and inject liquidity into the economy.
The letters read further: “It will enable the Federal Government of Nigeria meet obligations under the CPS and restore confidence in the pension industry.
“It will also ensure positive welfare, even for the retirees, as this will enable them to meet their basic needs, improve health and avoid untimely death.”
President Tinubu, who urged the National Assembly to give timely approval, assured of his administration’s commitment to transparency and accountability.
While the Senate President referred the request to the committee on local debts for further legislative action, Speaker of the House of Representatives referred same to the committees on national planning and economic development, as well as pensions for further action, both of which are to report to both arms of the NASS for further legislative action.
Nigeria’s total public debt rose by 48.6 per cent to N144.66 trillion in 2024, from N97.34 trillion in 2023, with the Federal Government accounting for 95 per cent or N137.28 trillion.
Consequently, the additional borrowing, when combined with the N10.85 trillion borrowed from domestic investors from January to April this year, indicates an increase in total public debt to over N180 trillion.
Meanwhile, the Federal Government’s debt service-to-revenue ratio, a critical measure of ability to repay loans, deteriorated to 131 per cent in the first two months of the year, January to February (2M’25), from 118 per cent in the corresponding period of 2024.
Vanguard’s analysis of data on fiscal activities of the Federal Government in the monthly economic report of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, for January and February, showed that the FG spent N1.399 trillion on debt service in 2M’25, up by 25 per cent YoY from N1.117 trillion in 2M’24.
It also recorded a 13 per cent YoY increase in revenue to N1.067 trillion in 2M’25, from N943.4 billion in 2M’24.
Consequently, the FG’s debt service-to-revenue rose to 131 per cent in the 2M’25, from 118 per cent in 2M’24.
The deterioration in the debt service-to-revenue will persist, given the additional borrowing sought by the President.
Consequently, economy stakeholders expressed concern over the implication of the additional borrowing for the FG’s debt service-to-revenue ratio.
While noting that the magnitude of the new loan is too large, representing almost half of the total external debt of $45.8 billion as at December 2024, while total external debt currently accounts for roughly 49% of public debt, and a sizable proportion of debt service, Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research, FBNQuest Merchant Bank, said: “I believe some caution is warranted, given the potential rise in debt service cost, and the inherent exchange rate risks associated with foreign denominated borrowings. This also has implications for the fiscal space.”
Capacity to repay should be a major concern — EX-CIS President
On his part, Olatunde Amolegbe, former President, Chartered Institute of Stockbroker, CIS, said: “ It is well known that the budget deficit projected for 2025 needed to be covered primarily through a combination of external and domestic borrowing, so this new request is probably in fulfillment of that.
“Borrowings from multilateral bodies typically come at relatively variable terms relative to commercial borrowing and this is expected to be the case for this new $21.5 billion loan.
‘’The N757.9 million in domestic pension bond, to used to fulfill government’s obligation regarding pension liabilities and should ensure that pensioners are able to get their entitlements immediately, while government covers the repayment and interest obligations over time.
“This is not the first pension bond that will be issued as some had been issued by the previous administration and I figure it won’t be the last. For me, borrowing in itself is not a problem as long as the capacity to meet up with repayment obligations, as at when due is there. It is, however, important that we pay particular attention to application and usage of the loans.”
Reacting to the proposed borrowings, Clifford Egbomeade, Economic analyst and communications expert said: “President Tinubu’s request to borrow $21.5 billion externally and issue a domestic bond of N757.9 billion to settle pension liabilities is a significant move that could have both short and long-term implications.
‘’On one hand, settling outstanding pension obligations can provide immediate relief for retirees and help stimulate domestic consumption, which supports economic activity. Similarly, if the external loans are concessional and targeted at productive sectors like agriculture, job creation, and infrastructure, they could contribute to broader economic development.
“That said, Nigeria’s current debt profile is already high, with total public debt at N144.7 trillion (about $94.2 billion) as of December 2024. Debt servicing costs remain a major concern, taking up a large share of government revenue.
“So, while these measures could help address urgent social and economic needs, their success will largely depend on how efficiently the funds are used and whether they are tied to reforms that boost revenue and reduce waste.
‘’Careful planning and transparency will be key to ensuring these efforts strengthen the economy, rather than deepen fiscal strain”.
Columns
The Three-Month Sprint (1): Philosophical Architecture of an Intellectual Trilogy of State Decay
Last week on The Sunday Stew, we unveiled the Decoupling Sovereignty Index (DSI), a quantitative metric I developed as an extension of the Trinity of State Decay. It is meant to be a mathematical instrument for measuring the degree of separation between a state’s juridical sovereignty and its lived reality. I had planned to follow up today with the first instalment of a three-part series on the methodology and indicators of the DSI.
Then, from the middle of last week, there was a development that sent me into a sustained period of reflection.
On Wednesday, Zenodo — the open-access repository developed by CERN, the European Organisation for Nuclear Research, and the European Commission — published my 16,315-word theoretical treatise, ‘The Trinity of State Decay (Part 1): Sovereign Decoupling and Rival Sovereignty — A Theoretical Statement.’ On Thursday, Harvard Dataverse, owned and operated by Harvard University, published the same work. On Friday morning, an email arrived from the Social Science Open Access Repository (SSOAR), operated by GESIS — the Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences in Germany — confirming that they too had accepted, published, and archived the paper.
Late Prof. Edward Said
I sat with that for a while. It is exactly three months since The Sunday Stew made its debut. In those three short months, we have produced an original analytical framework (The Insecurity Triad), a comprehensive theoretical formulation (the Trinity of State Decay), and a quantitative index (DSI). Within the same period, the framework entered global scholarly circulation, and now the theoretical paper has been published by three of the world’s most respected scholarly repositories within seventy-two hours of each other. I found myself thinking about the symmetry of it: three months. A trilogy of original contributions. A triple publication in a single week.
Numbers sometimes carry meaning far beyond arithmetic. This one felt like it was trying to tell me something.
I. The Seed Planted in a Library
When The Sunday Stew was conceived, I did not set out to become a framework architect, a theorist, or an index creator. But looking back, I think the seed was planted much earlier — by accident, in the history section of the University of Calabar library.
I was preparing a term paper on Nigerian history. Our lecturer was the late Dr. Erim O. Erim — a man you had to do your absolute best to satisfy. I was moving along the shelves when I stopped. What arrested me was a name on a spine: Sigmund Freud. His biography. I could not understand what such a book was doing in the history section. I took it anyway, borrowed it, and in one week read it cover to cover.
Of everything I read about Freud’s life, one idea lodged itself in my subconscious and has never left: Freud’s concept of immortality. He defined it simply but profoundly: immortality is being known by many anonymous people. Not a mystical phenomenon, but a psychological and systemic one. It is the act of leaving behind an intellectual footprint so distinct that your ideas are absorbed by millions of people who may never meet you, but who must use your language to understand their own reality.
Freud did not merely write a theory. He changed the global vocabulary. Because of Freud, anonymous people who have never read a page of psychoanalysis use the words ego, subconscious, projection, and defence mechanism every single day. They are operating within his architecture without ever knowing it. That, he argued, was immortality.
I was a young man in a university library who had come looking for Nigerian history and stumbled into a philosophy of intellectual legacy. I did not know, at the time, that I had been given a compass.
•Late Antonio Gramsci
II. The Book C.Don Handed Me
Several years later, when I lived in Lagos, I had someone who was (and still is) a friend, a big brother, and a mentor. The home of C.Don Adinuba — then at Ilupeju — was like my second home. I could walk in at any time. C.Don was the perfect host, and his wife a hostess of uncommon warmth. There was never a dull moment in that house. He knew I loved books, and he is himself one of the most intellectually deep people I have ever encountered.
On one of those days, he pulled a book from his shelf, handed it to me, and said: “Go and read this.” I looked at it. The author was unfamiliar. I asked: “Who is Edward Said?” He replied: “Just go and read the book.”
Representations of the Intellectual — which grew out of Said’s 1993 Reith Lectures for the BBC — turned out to be, apart from the Bible, one of the most impactful books I have ever read. In its pages I first encountered Antonio Gramsci, whose Prison Notebooks has made an enduring impression on my intellectual formation and theoretical development. Said’s argument — that the intellectual’s vocation is to speak truth to power, to represent the unrepresented, and to refuse the comfort of specialisation in favour of the discomfort of genuine engagement — became a way of understanding what journalism, practised seriously, is actually for.
And from Antonio Gramsci, particularly his broad conception of the intellectual, I came to understand that intellectuals are not confined to universities, research institutes, or academic titles. Gramsci argued that intellectual activity exists wherever people help shape ideas, interpret reality, organise knowledge, and influence how society understands itself. Through that lens, I realised that journalism is not merely a profession of reporting events; it is an inherently intellectual vocation.
As a journalist, I do more than gather facts and relay information. I help frame public conversations, interrogate power, highlight social challenges, preserve collective memory, and contribute to the global marketplace of ideas. This understanding deepened my sense of responsibility to society. It reinforced the belief that journalism carries a duty not only to inform but also to enlighten, challenge assumptions, encourage critical thinking, and provide citizens with the knowledge necessary to make informed decisions.
Gramsci’s perspective helped me see that the journalist occupies a vital bridge in the relationship between structured knowledge and public life. The responsibility is therefore not simply to report what happens, but to pursue truth rigorously, interpret developments thoughtfully, and contribute constructively to the intellectual and moral development of society. In that sense, journalism became for me not just a career, but a pure form of public intellectual engagement.
These two books — one stumbled upon by accident, one pressed into my hands by C.Don — formed the philosophical foundation on which everything that follows in this column rests. I did not know that at the time. I know it now.
Late Sigmund Freud
III. The Question That Started Everything
When The Sunday Stew made its debut on March 8th, I initially envisioned a column anchored broadly on faith, character, and the structural forces that shape society, with a focus on Nigeria and Africa in a global context. But the second edition on March 15 inspired our current trajectory. Entitled ‘A Country Without Earthquakes — Yet Shaken by Itself’, it explored the tragic reality of Nigeria manufacturing catastrophic man-made disasters while other nations contend merely with natural ones. The insights that came from writing that piece—drawing heavily from an expansive interview a former colleague and I conducted with the late Professor Jubril Aminu in 2012—inspired the rigorous analytical direction this column ultimately took, beginning with the development of The Insecurity Triad.
At the outset, I only set out to understand why Nigeria keeps bleeding. I wanted to discover why the same communities bury the same dead in the same circumstances decade after decade, while the state issues the same predictable condemnations, commissions the same redundant reports, and recommends the same superficial reforms that are never implemented. I set out, in other words, to do journalism.
What I did not anticipate was that the honest, uncompromising pursuit of that question would eventually produce what the academy calls a macro-theoretical framework—and that this framework would, in time, find its home at Harvard and other top-tier scientific repositories.
The Trinity of State Decay did not arrive fully formed. It emerged from a profound frustration—the frustration of a scholar-journalist who has spent years watching analytical frameworks imported wholesale from external academic traditions fail to explain the immediate reality happening in front of his eyes.
Failed state theory, useful as far as it goes, describes a static outcome. It names the corpse but completely fails to trace the actual cause of death. The Fragile States Index produces superficial comparative rankings but isolates no mechanisms. What was missing was an indigenous framework that could explain the operational process—the structural logic by which sovereign authority fractures and is progressively displaced by rival formations.
The insight, when it came, was disarmingly simple: states do not lose control randomly. They lose it systematically along three specific axes—Money, Land, and Mind. When the state loses its command of fiscal and economic legitimacy, when it loses territorial authority over its physical space, and when it loses ideological and psychological hold over the behavioural psyche of the population, something else moves in. Not chaos. Something far worse than chaos: a disciplined, purposeful Shadow Order, which is often more efficient at its enforcement functions than the formal state it is displacing.
This is what the Trinity of State Decay theorises. Not the mere failure of the state—but the active production of an alternative to it.
The geography of legitimate knowledge production has long maintained a centre and a periphery. The global centre produces the theoretical frameworks; the periphery receives them, submissively applies them, and occasionally pushes back against them in minor footnotes. What is happening right now with the Sundiata Post Intelligence Unit (SPIU)—with The Insecurity Triad already circulating in global academic repositories and the Trinity of State Decay now anchored across multiple institutions—is a clear demonstration that intellectual rigour does not possess a postal address.
The publication of the Trinity of State Decay on global scholarly platforms is not an end point. It is the formal opening of a conversation three decades in the making. If in the months, years, and decades to come, a professor at Harvard, a post-doctoral fellow in Legon, a PhD candidate in Oxford, or an undergraduate in Makerere writing a term paper finds it useful and engages with it, our purpose will have been fulfilled. None of them may ever know me personally, just as I never knew Freud, Gramsci, or Said.
Coda: The Symmetry Completes Itself
I began this reflection thinking about the symmetry of three: three months, a trilogy of contributions, a triple publication. But symmetry, I have come to understand, is not always visible at the beginning of a journey. It reveals itself exclusively in retrospect—which is, incidentally, also how Sovereignty Decoupling becomes visible to those who are living through it.
A young man borrowing a biography of Freud by accident in a university library. A mentor handing him Edward Said across a table in Ilupeju. Several years of frontline journalism asking the same stubborn questions about why our nation bleeds. A column that began as political commentary and rapidly transformed, by structural necessity, into a site of deep theoretical production. And now: Harvard, Zenodo, GESIS-SSOAR, all in a single week.
Three months. A trilogy. A triple publication. And with SSOAR’s confirmation arriving on Friday morning, our overall global archival footprint expands to seven critical institutional repositories when we include the foundational papers of The Insecurity Triad: SSRN, Harvard Dataverse, Zenodo, SocArXiv, SSOAR, ResearchGate, and Academia.edu. The symmetry, it appears, was not done with me yet.
The Trinity of State Decay is now available on Harvard Dataverse (doi:10.7910/DVN/ZQWEM7), Zenodo (doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20580627), SSOAR (nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-110533-8), ResearchGate, and Academia.edu. Read it. Push back against it. Apply it. Find its limits. That is exactly what it is there for.
Trust is sacred. Stay seasoned.
•Dr. Max Amuchie is a Scholar-Journalist, Media CEO, and Lead Researcher at the Sundiata Post Intelligence Unit (SPIU). He is the architect of The Insecurity Triad framework for African security analysis, the Trinity of State Decay theory, and the Decoupling Sovereignty Index (DSI)—original, indigenous analytical frameworks for understanding, categorising, and measuring conflict, state decay, and sovereignty in the Global South. He writes The Sunday Stew, a weekly syndicated column on faith, character, and the structural forces that shape society, with a focus on Nigeria, Africa, and the Global South in a changing world.
X (formerly Twitter): @MaxAmuchie | Email: max.a@sundiatapost.com | Tel: +234(0)8053069436
Abubakar Rabe, retired Major General former spokesman of the Nigerian Army who was abducted by bandits in Katsina State exactly two weeks ago, has died in captivity, reports coming from the state, one of the hotbeds of terrorist activities in Nigeria, confirmed on Saturday.
The retired senior military officer was kidnapped alongside his wife around the Matazu area of Katsina State while traveling to attend a wedding ceremony, was said to have died of complications from diabetes and high blood pressure in the camp of his abductors.
Nasiru Mu’azu, Commissioner for Internal Security and Home Affairs, in the state, who confirmed the incident, in a statement, said the government received the news with heavy heart and deep sense of loss.
He wrote: “It is with profound sadness that we confirm the General’s death while in bandits captivity. Despite the relentless and concerted efforts of the State Government and various Security Agencies to secure his safe release, the situation ended in this tragedy.
“The deceased Retired General died a natural death from complications of diabetes and hypertension. His abduction and subsequent death are not only a loss to his family and Katsina State but a monumental loss to the entire country.
“His Excellency, the Executive Governor of Katsina State Malam Dikko Umaru Radda, PhD, CON, extends his deepest condolences to the family of the late General and the country at-large.
“The Governor has described this incident as a “dark moment” and a reminder of the urgent need for a collective and intensified front against the criminal elements threatening the peace of our communities.
“The Katsina State Government remains committed to working with the Federal Government and security forces to ensure that those responsible for this heinous act are brought to justice. We assure the citizens of Katsina State that our resolve to eliminate banditry and ensure the safety of all residents remains unshaken.
“Our thoughts and prayers are with the bereaved family during this difficult time. May the soul of the departed Retired Major General Rabe Abdulakdir rest in eternal peace.”
-
News4 weeks agoBREAKING: US-Nigeria troops slaughter 175 ISWAP fighters
-
News2 weeks agoBREAKING: Terrorists strike Ibadan again! Abduct ex-Minister’s sister, twin children
-
Columns3 weeks agoDear General Gowon: That apology you’re running from is your nemesis
-
News4 weeks agoBREAKING: Wait over! Arsenal are CHAMPIONS! Win EPL after 22 years hiatus
-
Columns3 weeks agoSee Tinubu’s terrible damage on Option A4 and its precious memories
-
News4 weeks agoBREAKING: Jonathan emerges presidential candidate *Gets automatic PDP ticket!
-
News4 weeks agoPresidency: Obi met all requirements – NDC *Cleared to contest primaries
-
News2 weeks agoEmeka Ike: I’ll make example of Lere Olayinka for prying into my privacy