Reports released on Thursday by CNN and Goldman Sachs is indicating that China’s urban pet population is set to surpass the number of children under four by year end, amid a population that is ageing rapidly with a shrinking workforce, following decades of a one-child policy.
A study by the YuWa Population Research Institute found that China is one of the most expensive countries to raise a child, surpassing Australia and France in relative terms, even with the country ending its one-child policy in 2016 and later relaxing birth restrictions in 2021 to allow three children.
Stressing that the country is now struggling to boost birth rates, having previously been successful in limiting them, the report noted how couples interviewed for the study like Hansen, 36, and Momo, 35, are opting out of having children and instead choosing to become pet owners, a trend increasingly common among Chinese couples.
A Goldman Sachs report predicts that by year’s end, the number of pets in China’s urban areas will exceed the number of children under the age of four, driven by growing demand for pet food, with projections that by 2030, urban China’s pet population would nearly double the number of children under four nationwide.
This estimate only accounts for urban areas, and the total number of pets would be even higher if rural areas were included, the report says, stating that the rising pet ownership in China reflected a shift in values among younger generations, who no longer prioritise marriage and childbearing as a means of continuing family lineage.
“Different generations value things differently, you know,” with the report, stressing that China’s pet food sector is booming, with sales growing 16 per cent annually from 2017 to 2023, reaching $7 billion, with the projected expansion to $12 billion by 2030, and a potential upside of $15 billion in just six years, making it one of the fastest-growing consumer sectors in the country.
The report, which highlighted that the pet industry’s surge in China marked a stark contrast to just 20 years ago, when keeping pets was seen as a luxury of the wealthy and mixed-breed dogs were primarily valued as guard animals, also indicate that China’s birth rate is also expected to decline by 4.2 per cent annually from 2022 to 2030, driven by a shrinking population of women aged 20-35 and a growing trend among young people to delay or forgo having children.
Amid rising costs and economic uncertainty are deterring many Chinese couples from having children, the report, said: “We expect to see stronger momentum in pet ownership amid a relatively weaker birth rate outlook and higher incremental household pet penetration from the younger generation. The world’s second-biggest economy is facing headwinds ranging from high youth unemployment to a protracted property crisis.
With population dropping for two consecutive years, hitting 1.409 billion, amid a record-low birth rate of 6.39 per 1,000 people, the lowest rate since the founding of Communist China in 1949, the government has shifted its approach, replacing restrictive population control measures like forced abortions and sterilisations with enticing incentives, such as cash rewards and extended parental leave, to encourage people to have children.