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SEDC, Nnamdi Kanu: Has Tinubu appeased Ndigbo?
On the night of Thursday, July 25, 2024, Benjamin Kanu, Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, was the guest of Prime Time, a public affairs programme on Arise News Television. From beginning to the end of that programme, I continued to twist and flinch as each word he spewed hit me like a sharp point of needle being poked on my body.
As a journalist myself, I could put myself in the shoes of Constance Ikokwu, the anchor of the programme at that point. An Igbo herself, she must have been struggling to maintain a balance between professionalism and the fact of her ethnic reality, during that engagement. Indeed, she must have been in a fix, as it were. I would have been myself.
The Deputy Speaker, the brain behind the enactment of the Act for the establishment of the South East Development Commission (SEDC), by the National Assembly, which President Bola Tinubu signed into law, two days earlier, was actually in a triumphant, celebratory mood. He had projected the feat as the coming of uhuru for Ndigbo, describing it as the demonstration of the love the President has for the Igbo people.
Anyone would cut him a slack for feeling on top of the moon by achieving the feat and succeeding where others had failed previously. I would. But the matter got quite bemusing from there when he began to give the impression that the gesture was all Ndigbo needed to turn 360 degrees in their feelings for Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC).
In the first place, the creation of the SEDC, is not exclusive to Ndigbo. Before it, there have been similar bodies like it across other zones in the country. In fact, on the same day Tinubu was signing the document, he also did so for the North West Development Commission (NWDC). Before that, there was the North East Development Commission (NEDC), created under former President Muhammadu Buhari and the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), for the oil-bearing areas of Nigeria, mostly concentrated in the South South zone.
So, what’s the hype? Was it that Ndigbo, had now been singled out for a special treatment, or the fact that they were finally given what others had enjoyed for years? What’s there enough to roll out the drums? That’s one of the questions I had expected the beautiful anchor to put to her guest. I had also expected her to raise the issue of the general mistreatment of Ndigbo since the APC got into office in 2015, which Tinubu had virtually taken to a new level.
I had expected her to ask the DS if he felt comfortable that a mere Deputy Speaker, would be the highest position Ndigbo, the third leg of the Nigerian tripod, was entitled to in Nigeria and if he was comfortable being the one that would now speaking in place of the likes of Zik of Africa, the late Owelle of Onitsha, Nnamdi Azikiwe, Kingsley Ozumba Mbadiwe, Akweke Abyssinia Nwafor Orizu, who represented the Igbo faces and voices in the First Republic.
Even after the civil war, regardless they were a defeated people, Nigeria, in apparent recognition of the place of Ndigbo in Nigeria’s history still had the presence of mind to secure a pride of place for them. That was how the likes of the Alex Ekwueme, and Edwin Ume-Ezeoke, Vice President and Speaker of the House of Representatives, respectively, emerged among other prominent positions, in the Second Republic.
Come to a more recent times, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the next full civilian rule, Ndigbo were still not left out. The likes of Chuba Okadigbo, et al as Senate Presidents, Vincent Ogbulafor, National Chairman, Ojo Maduekwe, National Secretary, Pius Anyim Pius Anyim, Senate President and later Secretary of Government of the Federation (SGF), were in the first 11 of the Nigerian structural team, while the duos of Ike Ekweremadu and Emeka Ihedioha, Deputy Senate President and Deputy Speaker of the House or Representatives, held forte at the National Assembly.
Down the ladder, Ndigbo were never left to warm the bench either or reduced to mere spectators. In fact, they were the major strikers, with the likes of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Oby Ezekwesili, Osita Ogbu, Ernest Ndukwe, et al. They were not only reputed to be the main drivers of the Nigerian economy, but majorly the face of Nigeria in the international arena as well.
That was until the coming of Buhari, who changed everything. Nobody knows how much sleepless nights he suffered during this period when Ndigbo was doing their exploits. In his private moments, he would have thought, Ndigbo of all people! Imagine an Igbo man becoming Chief of Army Staff before his eyes. A people he conquered! Unthinkable! That must have accounted for the vehemence with which he released his venom on them in his eight-year full onslaught, as accentuated by his “97-5 per” cent model, that saw him not only fully excluding them in appointments, but allowing their homeland descend into the worst security situation since the civil war.
Yes! Kalu, the Deputy Speaker was right. Tinubu was actually chummy with Ndigbo. Throughout his eight years as governor of Lagos State, Igbo people featured prominently both in his government and, or politics, officially and privately. All these changed when he met Buhari and got infected by the Buhari phenomenal disdain and outright hatred for them. Since then, he has taken it to an all high. At the APC, demeaning the Igbo man has remained a major party policy ever since – Organising – Treasurer and other trivial positions are all they now get in a so-called national party.
I wonder if the Deputy Speaker was aware that the same Tinubu recently made a whole 16 appointments without a single Igbo man. It happened just a few days before his Arise TV appearance. There is a saying that whoever wants to stop a fight must start when fingers are being pointed. Tinubu has since passed that stage to a point of trying to wrestle down Ndigbo, a task, which will naturally be as futile as it was with Buhari and others who had tried.
But one of the most interesting nuances of the whole Thursday encounter was the angle of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu. Incidentally the DS is representing Bende Federal Constituency, home to the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). Introducing the Kanu narrative, he described his encounter with him during a recent visit at the facility of the Department of State Services (DSS), where he has been in detention since July, 2021. The coming of the SEDC, was major during the parley.
Hear him: “One of the things he told me was I like The Peace in the South East Project that the President came and flagged off. He sent the Vice President to flag it off in Bende on the 29th of December, 2023. He said the eight thematic areas of that peace in the South East, I like them. If I’m released from this incarceration, I’ll be in the forefront of projecting the eight thematic peaceful agenda of peace in the South East project.
“When a man starts talking like that, the followers will also talk in that manner. He’s no longer talking violence. He’s no longer talking conflict, he’s no longer talking agitation, he’s talking how do we use peace as a vehicle to heal our land. I saw him and I saw in him a man who wants peace.
“I saw a man, who was impressed that we’re taking steps towards rebuilding the zone. And I assured him that this President that I know will assent to this South East Development Commission. He told me one thing – he said – if this man signs this bill into law, it means that he truly loves South East. He told me he would lead the support for the President.”
I’ve since heard many people, practically scoffing at the intriguing revelation. Not a few believe the IPOB boss they know could not capitulate so easily. I have no way of knowing the truth until I hear from him. Regardless, assuming the report is true, and indeed the move is a sort of a tradeoff or a pitch to use the freedom of Kanu to endear APC to Ndigbo for Tinubu’s political benefit, it is most likely dead on arrival.
The only way the APC could win election in any part of Igbo land today is via state capture – such as has remained their template over the years. Even the DS himself may not be able to swear to Kamanu that he did not travel that route to power. In fact, the very first utterance from Kanu in support of Tinubu, as things are today between him and Ndigbo would put an end to his deification even from his close allies. Like the proverbial god that begins to misbehave, Ndigbo will simply show him the tree from which he was carved.
I don’t need go far to cite examples. The scenery around the late Ikemba Nnewi, Emeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, when he returned to Nigeria, in 1982, may never be replicated in the history of Ndigbo. The crowd that welcomed him on May 18, of that year, and at the welcome party in various cities, could actually make it to the Guinness World Record (GWR), as the hugest in history. Everywhere he went showcased similar enthusiasm. Ndigbo closed their shops, while people struggled to have a sight of him. Even the late Osita Osadebe, historic highlife maestro, waxed a special record to welcome him back. Such was his popularity.
Then, he did the unthinkable. He joined the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). The ruling party, must have banked on him to garner all Igbo votes. Many even swore that it was the deal ab initio, from his abode in Ivory Coast, where he was on exile after the failure of the Biafran effort. But whatever dividend they had hoped went with the wind. Ndigbo simply did the needful. He could not even win a senatorial election against Edwin Onwudiwe, a lowly commissioner in his home Anambra State on the platform of the ruling party.
As alternative, the Igbo NPN chieftains, who had made the gamble, actually had to use other means as counter, such as employed in the eventual capture Anambra State from the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) of the late Owelle of Onitsha, Nnamdi Azikiwe. Till date, the way the NPN, wrenched away power from Jim Nwobodo in favour of Christian Chukwuma Onoh, remains one of the demonstrable examples the impunity and the audacious nature of the use of political power responsible for not only the vulnerability democracy in Africa, Nigeria inclusive.
To further adumbrate the point of the futility of the IPOB boss for political purposes, I will also cite a more recent case of Orji Uzor Kalu (OUK). Incidentally it was under him that the DS cut his political teeth. Perhaps he would know. In his early days as Governor of Abia State, OUK was a phenomenon in the South East. At a point, he became the most virulent voice of Ndigbo for his audacious and daring courage in speaking out for them and was already being primed as the next authentic Igbo leader. I remember a former governor and one of his contemporaries, with whom I had a private dinner at that time practically gushing with envy at Kanu’s exploits and popularity.
Who else was there at the Cinema Hall of Hotel Presidential, Enugu, when Kanu addressed Ndigbo in Nigeria and the diasporas, as a keynote speaker during the 2001 World Igbo Day? I recall the crowd that spilled beyond the huge hall to the veranda as much of the crowd practically pressed their ears to the wall to hear him speak. It was the picture I gleaned from the depiction of the scenario at Virginia Assembly, USA, on March 23, 1775, where Patrick Henry, gave that historic speech – Give Me Liberty or Give Me Death. History had it that so inspiring was it that one of the listeners pled in his will that he be buried at the exact spot where he stood to listen to it, which was granted at his death. Such was OUK at that time.
Then, like the butterfly thinking itself a bird, he made that blunder the day he offered an official apology to Nigeria on behalf of Ndigbo for engaging in the civil war. He never recovered from the backlash of that particular political hara-kiri, which eclipsed the bright political profile. Today, Mmiririenyi, having been reduced in weight and size, is no a shadow of himself.
To worsen the matter, his most recent fixation these days, seems some attempts to turn the edge of his political dagger against the same Igbo people, perhaps in a sort of vengeance to cut his pound of flesh, as could be seen in his professed love for Buhari, at a time he was actually flogging Ndigbo with his biblical snakes and scorpions.
Now, what am I labouring to say? If that outing by the DS is an attempt to sell either APC or Tinubu to the South East, it would be akin to repeating the NPN gambit. I totally agree with the top lawmaker that the release of Kanu might be the solution to the massive insecurity in the South East currently. Yes! It is capable of putting a face to the perpetrators of the various crimes. At the moment, IPOB is being blamed for everything, including a man’s failure to get erection or inability to impregnate his wife. It appears every crime in the area today is virtually an open and shut case as they are conveniently labelled with the IPOB tag and thrown into the trashcan.
I therefore fully support his push for Tinubu to order Kanu’s release. But that is where it ought to stop. They say, you have to be close to someone to perceive smell of his body. Luckily, the DS seems to be among those who have access to Tinubu. He sees the SEDC Act as a gamechanger. I wonder why he seems not to be seeing the fact that it is actually Buhari and not Tinubu that is still holding Kanu and could only be released if he says so.
Yes! Tinubu, could actually order the release, but it would be at the displeasure of his predecessor, who had to break the banks to ensure that the IPOB boss was brought back to Nigeria. Yes! There are a million reasons he ought to have regained his freedom like the others like him in other parts of the country. But to Buhari, Ndigbo are not like other Nigerians. Would Tinubu elect to offend him, just yet? Could he risk it? Perhaps the DS has a genie he could spring from the magic lamp to achieve that feat. I support him wholeheartedly to give it a trial. But to make Tinubu smell roses in the South East? That’s a different kettle of fish.
I like his enthusiasm and his emphatic declaration, when like Michelangelo’s flourish, he said: “Watch what will happen in the South East. With the beautiful step the President has taken, a lot of things will start coming down.” Such enthusiasm! We wait!
My name is Sunny Igboanugu, I’m The Tiny Voice!
I will always refer to the encounter I once had with Kenneth Idiodi. He was then the leader of the Rosicrucian Society in Nigeria, otherwise known as Amok. It was a sit-down at Zodiac Hotel Enugu. Then, I was the reporter of The Guardian in the Coal City.
You know the Amok faith bases its philosophy or belief on the law of Retributive Justice – the law of Karma. That is to say, everything you do in life has its rewards or punishment in equal measure – much like the measure you give, the measure you receive.
I don’t know how much this society draws or links this belief from or with the Bible, but I do recall Jesus Christ warning Simon Peter – return your sword to the scabbard – for he who kills by the sword, dies by the sword.
As a child growing up I listened to one of the epics of Oriental Brothers with the lyrics – ogbu mma ga-esi n’mma na, ogba egbe ga-esi n’egbe na ooo! Translated – he who kills by the sword will die by the sword, he who kills by the gun will die by the nozzle of the gun.
Now, here is where this is relevant in present Nigerian reality – the reason I’m putting details of that encounter out publicly once again, having done so previously.
During that encounter, Idiodi used one event in Nigeria to illustrate his point. He told me of a Nigerian leader who commanded the troop that carried out the Asaba massacre in the heat of the Nigerian civil war – an episode, said to have claimed over 2,000 able-bodied men who had come out to welcome the Nigerian soldiers with songs and dances only to fall in the hail of bullets that descended on them like rainstorms – was not spared by fate.
That commander was to meet his own death in a hail of bullets even as a Head of State. He never mentioned the name of the military top brass. But I used my tongue to count my teeth to come to the answer. You could also do same – use your tongue.
Now, how does this relate? You may have followed the outing of General Yakubu Gowon at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre, Abuja, where he presented his autobiography titled: My Life of Duty and Allegiance, that contained what seemed his memoir on the Nigerian civil war, which he prosecuted as Head of State.
I’m sure you must have been observing the debate therefrom that event. Now, I’m not so much enamoured of the debate as I’m of the nuances surrounding that unfortunate episode and the role of Gowon in it, given my takeaway from that Idiodi encounter some two decades ago.
Does Gowon, now a nonagenarian really believe that presenting a pious, if not saintly account of himself to the world as snippets of his book, which I picked up here and there suggests, truly suffices for the atrocities of that period?
Take the Asaba massacre for example. Was that the handiwork of Odumegwu Ojukwu, the Biafran leader, whom the former Head of State seems to blame for everything that went wrong. Was he also the one that commanded that mass slaughtering of innocent men?
Under your nose as Head of State, you watched citizens slaughtered mercilessly like infested herds in the streets – you watched young girls corralled into leprosy colonies and wantonly raped before being wasted – you watched as train coaches bearing people fleeing the scene were stopped and their human cargoes thrown alive into River Benue like rotten goods for fishes to feast on – you watched all these and didn’t lift a finger.
Then as Head of State, you not only supervised but watched millions of children with distended stomachs, tiny feet, glazy eyes, heavy heads on ropelike necks, practically begging for death to come quickly and save them from further punishment.
You supervised and watched the cataclysmic eruptions from the blitzkrieg on churches, markets and hospitals – all to keep Nigeria together. In your mind the brutal and merciless butchery of innocent people who were not soldiers and had nothing to do with the war could be explained away just like that?
O! It was Ojukwu that caused it. Ojukwu was the one who released the bombs, caused the blockades that led to the kwashiorkor that killed millions or other atrocities thereof? What a pity!
Now, I return to Idiodi. How else could anyone interpret today’s Nigeria without introducing the law of retributive justice that the Amok leader spoke of? How do you fault the link of the commander who massacred over 2,000 souls dying by the barrel of the same gun, even as Head of State?
How could anyone fail to relate what is happening to our Gowon today with the past? This is a Geneal that wakes up to see hundreds of his brothers and sisters being buried in mass graves as was done during the onslaught he supervised against another people and he still thinks it has nothing to do with him?
Now, the story you told at that event in Abuja on Tuesday, is not new. You simply repeated yourself. My interpretation of that event is that you’re a man undergoing daily torture. You wouldn’t be a human being otherwise, given what is before you, which didn’t start today.
You’re probably trying to escape your fate by appealing to public sympathy. How helpful could that be in the face of the clear evidence of your culpability in the deliberate wasting of more than three million souls? Nobody would believe you.
Yes! They could humour you. But that’s the best anyone could do for you. I hear money rained like a fountain and that you left the scene with billions of naira in your kitty. At 90? Haba General!
Now, here is the thing General. None of these would help.
None would work. You have tried prayers. But you forget that the prayer of sinner is an abomination and a reproach before God, unless he repents. You have also written the book. Surely, this too would end up in the trashcan of history – meaningless piece of conjectures, propaganda, half-truths and outright lies – perhaps!
But, why don’t you try the one thing you have been running away from, for more than five decades – go on your knees in total supplication and surrender, repentance and penance – then rise, call all Nigerians and empty yourself with the truth.
Thereafter openly apologise to the millions of souls whose tormenting wailing you probably hear every day during your disturbed sleep and in your quiet moments, but choose to suppress with these baby tales. Ask them for forgiveness, genuinely and see. There may lie the answer you seek.
Try that and see if it wouldn’t be a more efficacious cure for this decades-old wound than this Ojukwu-bashing and those wasted prayer sessions. You might not only have atoned for the past, but saved the future. May God guide you.
My name is Sunny Igboanugo, I’m The Tiny Voice
By MAX AMUCHIE | The Sunday Stew
In the last two weeks, Parts One and Two diagnosed a structural mutation in the Nigerian state: a dual sovereignty system in which the Institutional Mirage performs authority while the Shadow Order exercises it, sustained by The Insecurity Triad as a mechanism of mutual reproduction.
What remains is the hardest question in political theory: not what is happening, but whether it can be reversed.
The answer is yes—but not through reform.
Systems that reproduce decay cannot be repaired within their own logic. They must be structurally interrupted.
The Trinity does not collapse. It is displaced.
From Ritual Governance to Peripheral Presence
The first reversal targets the geography of illusion.
The Institutional Mirage is concentrated in the symbolic centre—where governance is performed through summits, communiqués, and administrative ceremony—while dissolving at the periphery where authority is actually tested.
This produces a distorted state: visible in Abuja, absent in the borderlands.
To reverse the Trinity, the state must abandon Ritual Governance—the substitution of performance for presence—and return to the empirical occupation of territory.
This is not military occupation. It is administrative presence as sovereignty.
A state exists not when it speaks in the capital, but when:
a child attends a functioning school without paying a parallel tax of fear;
a farmer harvests without negotiating with non-state authority;
a dispute is resolved by a recognised court faster than an armed intermediary.
Governance is not restored by declaration. It is restored by continuity.
Where state presence becomes routine, the Shadow loses its monopoly on predictability.
From Pacification Bargaining to Sovereign Integrity
The second reversal confronts a deeper failure: negotiated sovereignty.
The state has increasingly drifted into a system of Negotiated Sovereignty sustained through what may be described as Pacification Bargaining—the purchase of temporary calm from rival authority structures through ransom logic, amnesty arrangements, protection payments, or informal accommodation.
This is not strategy. It is dependency disguised as pragmatism.
Every bargain strengthens The Insecurity Triad by:
monetising abduction economies;
legitimising territorial extraction;
reinforcing the Shadow’s role as a negotiating sovereign.
The result is a system of self-financing violence in which each concession funds the next cycle of coercion.
Pacification Bargaining does not resolve insecurity. It institutionalises it.
Each transaction deepens the perception that coercion is profitable, territorial pressure is negotiable, and sovereign authority is conditional rather than absolute.
Sovereign recovery therefore requires rupture in this economy.
The state must reassert a non-negotiable monopoly over:
taxation;
adjudication;
legitimate force.
Integrity, in this context, is not moral posture. It is institutional refusal to participate in markets of coercion.
A state that bargains over its coercive authority is not managing insecurity—it is outsourcing sovereignty.
The Critical Break: Dismantling the Insecurity Triad
To dismantle The Insecurity Triad is to break the loop between performed sovereignty and enforced sovereignty.
This cannot be achieved through security operations alone, though coercive force remains an essential and non-negotiable instrument of restoring empirical sovereignty. It requires something deeper: the reconstruction of institutional credibility in the very spaces the Institutional Mirage has abandoned.
It requires the state to stop performing governance and start delivering it. To stop negotiating the terms of its own authority and start enforcing them.
To recover the map—not in abstraction, but in detail: name by name, community by community—that armed actors are actively redrawing through coercion, taxation, and enforced renaming.
Dismantling the Triad is therefore not only a security task. It is a reversal of political geography itself.
The Cartographic Re-occupation of the Republic
The Shadow Order does not only occupy land. It reorganises meaning.
Through what may be understood as Constitutional Erasure, it renames territories, restructures local identity, and replaces the symbolic map through which authority is recognised.
Once this occurs, sovereignty is no longer contested physically alone—it is contested cognitively.
Cartographic Re-occupation is therefore not symbolic politics. It is structural restoration.
It requires three coordinated acts.
First, administrative re-anchoring: the immediate restoration of functioning institutions—schools, clinics, courts, and local administration—under continuous state presence.
Second, symbolic restoration: the reassertion of original geographic and civic identities through formal public renaming and constitutional recognition.
Third, cognitive consolidation: governance must cease to appear as intervention and become the default condition of life.
The state is not restored when it returns to territory. It is restored when territory returns to the state’s cognitive map.
Intellectual Closure: The State After Fragmentation
The deeper insight of this architecture is that sovereignty in Nigeria is no longer singular.
What has emerged is a fragmented order in which authority is distributed between competing logics of governance—one performed, one enforced, both partially functional, neither complete.
This is where African political thought clarifies the structure beneath the surface.
The logic of adaptive survival described by Jean-François Bayart explains why the state persists even as it weakens. Achille Mbembe explains how survival itself becomes managed rather than guaranteed.
Together, they clarify the central claim of the Trinity: this is not collapse. It is reorganisation.
Closing Movement
Nigeria does not face a singular collapse of authority. It faces a structured competition between performed sovereignty and functional sovereignty.
The Mirage still speaks in the language of the state.
The Shadow still governs in the language of necessity.
Between them, society survives by navigating two competing logics of order.
The question is no longer who governs.
It is whether governance itself can be reassembled into a single coherent structure.
The Reversal Condition: Sequential Sovereignty Restoration
The Trinity is reversible, but only in sequence.
Protection must be restored before compliance can shift.
Compliance must shift before territorial credibility stabilises.
Territorial credibility must stabilise before institutional authority can move from performance to function.
Any inversion of this order produces relapse.
The system is not resistant to reform. It is resistant to mis-sequencing.
The Trinity reverses only when sovereignty becomes empirically enforceable again through the sequential reconstitution of protection, compliance, and territorial credibility, thereby disrupting the mutual reproduction loop between the Institutional Mirage and the Shadow Order sustained by The Insecurity Triad.
Where this sequence fails, the loop does not weaken. It adapts.
The Social Contract Is Not Broken — It Is Being Replaced
There can be no social contract in a state where the sovereign performs authority it does not possess, negotiates with rivals it cannot defeat, and watches—from the polished corridors of Abuja—as the names of its own communities are erased from the landscape it claims to govern.
The conventional framing of Nigeria’s crisis describes a broken social contract: the state has failed its obligations, and the people are paying the price.
That framing is not wrong. But it is insufficient.
A broken contract implies a single agreement that has lapsed—and the possibility, in principle, of renegotiation and restoration.
What the Trinity of State Decay reveals is something more structural.
The social contract is not merely broken. It is being replaced.
In the spaces where the Institutional Mirage does not reach—in the northwest, northeast, and Middle Belt, in renamed villages and abandoned farmlands—a rival contract is being written.
On rival terms. Under rival authority. With rival consequences for those who refuse to sign.
The Shadow Order does not offer freedom. It offers a different captivity—one organised around extraction, fear, and the brutal clarity of power that does not pretend to be something it is not.
Within its own logic, it is internally consistent and therefore predictable.
And in conditions where protection becomes uncertain and uneven, predictability itself begins to function as a substitute for legitimacy—not as consent, but as adaptation under constraint.
The Institutional Mirage, by contrast, sustains a different form of instability: the unpredictability of protection, the inconsistency of enforcement, and the performance of authority that does not reliably translate into outcomes.
It is this asymmetry—between predictable coercion and unpredictable protection—that accelerates the silent transfer of compliance from formal sovereignty to rival order.
Conventional state failure frameworks assume a linear erosion of capacity.
The Trinity departs from this by demonstrating a dual-state condition in which formal and rival sovereignties coexist, interact, and reinforce decay.
Nigeria is not a failed state.
It is a state in the grip of a Trinity.
The Definition
Drawing on the full architecture of the foregoing analysis, I now offer a formulation of the Trinity of State Decay theory:
The Trinity of State Decay is the decoupling of a state into rival sovereignties: the Institutional Mirage, which performs authority without fully possessing it, and the Shadow Order—or competing Shadow Orders—which exercises de facto authority in spaces the Mirage has vacated, both sustained by The Insecurity Triad as the mechanism of their mutual reproduction.
The Trinity intensifies where the Mirage fragments into competing centres of performed authority, accelerating the transfer of empirical sovereignty to rival structures.
The Trinity reverses only when sovereignty becomes empirically enforceable again as a stable condition of governance.
This condition is not defined by the mere presence of the state, but by the alignment of three realities: protection must be enforceable, compliance must orient toward the state, and territorial authority must remain continuous.
Where these diverge, sovereignty fragments.
Where they converge, sovereignty reconstitutes.
Recovery is not repair or return. It is the production of a new equilibrium in which the Mirage collapses into function, the Shadow is displaced, and The Insecurity Triad loses its organising role.
This condition is produced through sequence: protection must precede compliance, compliance must precede territorial credibility, and territorial credibility must precede institutional function. Any inversion produces relapse; where the sequence holds, the loop breaks.
While derived from the Nigerian case, the Trinity offers a generalisable framework for analysing state decay in contexts where formal sovereignty persists alongside entrenched systems of rival governance.
Stay seasoned.
•Concluded
•Dr. Max Amuchie is the CEO of Sundiata Post and architect of The Insecurity Triad Analytical Framework, and the Trinity of State Decay theory. He writes The Sunday Stew, a weekly syndicated column on faith, character, and the forces that shape society, with a focus on Nigeria and Africa in a global context.
X — @MaxAmuchie | Email: max.a@sundiatapost.com | Tel: +234(0)8053069436
Godwin Obaseki, former Governor of Edo State was the first to raise the alarm. He rang the bell in the most dramatic manner in that video that went viral on the heels of the 2023 presidential election. It was about the impending tsunami confronting the Nigerian political space – the Peter Obi phenomenon!
The forum the ex-governor spoke was supposed to be a family meeting – a kitchen cabinet affair, where he interacted with the inner caucus of his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in his state. But he ended up not only alerting the nation, but passing the message about the new reality in the must pungent, direct and unobtrusive manner – something new has come – Peter Obi.
Whether it was meant to be a warning, an admonition or simply a subject of amusement – as the governor seemed tickled while delivering it – Obaseki’s words in that outing hit the right spot in national consciousness across board. The young, the old, the healthy and the infirm, all heard it clearly. Now whatever they did individually remains a different kettle of fish.
In that encounter, Obaseki had told his audience how, despite being a governor and the engine room of the PDP in the state, his own family had turned against him with all children and other young members enlisting into the Obidient Movement and how that was true of every other family in Nigeria.
Now, was Obaseki’s depiction false? Didn’t it come to pass on February 25, 2023, when Nigerians went to the polls? If Yakubu Mahmoud and his INEC had not contrived that technical glitches arrangement to abjure the mandate of the people in line with the grab, snatch and run philosophy of the present beneficiary of that obvious heist, Obi certainly would have been Nigerian President.
Had that happened, Obi’s would have been not only a clean and wholesome mandate, untainted by the paintbrush of rigging or other electoral infamies bespattering previous efforts, it would have been a national mandate – delivered by the people of Nigeria – likened only to Moshood Abiola’s June 12, 1993 presidential election victory.
In fact, so pan-Nigerian was the Peter Obi effort that Nigerians of all ethnic and religious persuasions came together and on their own, in clusters, within housing estates, in villages and communities, contributed money to fund their individual campaigns to promote the project of getting him to the Aso Rock Villa for the nation’s number one job.
Nigerians abroad – Yoruba – Hausa – Ibibio – Jukun – Igala – Tiv – Kalabari – Igbo – Edo – made special arrangements to return home with the sole purpose of not only promoting the agenda, but actually making the idea a reality by casting their votes for him.
Obi was the only one out of the lot that contested the election in 2023 that secured the endorsement of virtually all the ethic organisations across Nigeria.
Afenifere – the pan-Yoruba socio-cultural organisation – the Middle-Belt Forum (MBF) from the North Central – Pan-Niger Delta Forum PANDEF – for the South South region and Ohanaeze – their South East counterpart – all came together to declare their support for his presidential ambition.
Now this is the same person that some naysayers are labouring too hard, day and night to closet inside the straightjacket of ethnicity and religion. From Reno Omokri to Daniel Bwala to Bayo Onanuga and others controlling working from the Presidency to their counterparts at the Blantyre Plaza APC secretariat in Abuja – they continue to trumpet the spurious, bogus and fake narrative of Obi’s ambition being steeped in some sort of Igbo agenda.
Ironically, out of the entire lot, the selfsame Obi, is the only one who came out to boldly declare that nobody should cast a vote for him because he is Igbo, rather, they should do so because they are convinced about his ability to deliver on a new Nigeria of their dreams. No other had the courage to make such a bold declaration.
Surprisingly, even Wole Soyinka, one of Nigeria’s most iconic figures – a central voice in national and international affairs – Nigeria’s man of the century – the Kongi himself – who had hitherto shot himself to a position of a super being – of immortality – beyond reproach – without any credible reason even by his own conjecture – called the Obi ambition – an IPOB agenda.
That underscores the seriousness of the entire scenario. But interestingly, no matter how they try to trumpet it, their efforts have continued to mimic a snake striking at the shell of the tortoise with the aim of infusing its killer poison.
Their frustration not only hinges on this apparent failure but their current desperation too! The Obi brand has continued to soar beyond comprehension. So, when you hear the echoes of ethnic baiting, religious smears or other primordial sentiments, just know they are trying to increase the tempo of the din! Such a frustrating task!
My name is Sunny Igboanugo, I’m The Tiny Voice!
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