Nigerians have no need to despair, the Federal Government assured on Tuesday over the parlous state of economy, saying the policies of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Administration are yielding fruits, and that positive pictures of a complete rebound are already emerging.
Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Atiku Bagudu, Budget and National Planning, Yemi Cardoso, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor (CBN) and Zacch Adedeji, Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), all part of the President’s Economic Team, were at the House of Representatives on Tuesday, where they painted a positive picture of the economy.
Not only did the foresee an imminent drop in the high cost of living and inflation, they also spoke on the parlous fate of the Naira, Nigeria’s national currency against foreign currencies, particularly the dollar, saying it was only a matter of time for it to stabilise.
Edun, who said the current challenges in the economy were expected especially after the withdrawal of petrol subsidy, which would have left the country on the path to economic disaster, if sustained, assured that President Tinubu was committed to protecting the poorest and the vulnerable.
Hear him: “Where we are as a nation economically is a much better place than we were on the 29th of May 2023. Before the implementation of the 8-point agenda of the President began, we were in an unsustainable place in terms of the fiscal situation of Nigeria. We were on the road to economic disaster.
“We had expenditure which was wasteful and unsustainable by way of the subsidy. Not just on fuel, but the subsidy on foreign exchange which confused the incentive framework and people were changing cheap dollars in order to make instant profits. Of course, in turning back from that road, as we have heard, there will be dust.
“However, bold measures have been taken and there have been positive results. If we look at the finances of the government today, there have been benefits to the federation account; there has been a reduction in the consumption of petrol by about 20 million litres because there was smuggling apart from wasteful use of petrol.
“Likewise, there have been other benefits which have accrued as a result of the changes that have been made. However, there has been cost. Inflation has increased. The cost of living has spiked and right from the outset, Mr. President committed to making sure that the poorest and most vulnerable were not left behind. That is why the palliatives and the interventions have been rolled out.
“Mr. President made a commitment to confront, to engage and indeed to use state power to subdue the vested interests that had resulted in oil production and sales going down to as low as 1.25 mbpd. We have 1.65 barrels per day and rising. That is the quickest way to give relief. The governor of the CBN said that in 2011 we were virtually at 100 billion dollars a year from oil sales. Now we are on the way back up; 1.65 million bpd and rising.”
Edun, also spoke on the current effort to halt rising inflation, saying: “A large element is food inflation. In fact, food inflation accounts for 33 per cent of the consumer price index. So, when you attack food production, raise food production and bring down the price of food, you bring down inflation. You get the chance to bring down interest rates and there lies the road to investment. I was recently in Nasarawa and met all the stakeholders in the agricultural chain.
“They committed with confidence to a very good dry season harvest. We intervened in that sector, from fertilizer, from grains supply to funding for rice, maize, wheat and cassava to bring 400, 000 hectares under production. So, these are the steps being taken to bring inflation down to stabilize the economy and prepare for investment.
“There will be further intervention on behalf of the poor and vulnerable to assist with the cost-of-living rise, which is the inevitable result of having waited so long to turn the corner. Let us be confident, assured and calm that Nigeria has turned the corner in terms of its economic management and the way forward is up. At the same time, the poor and vulnerable would be assisted at every turn.
“I am happy to inform you that as of yesterday (Monday), the volume of transactions in our markets was over $844 million. This is the first time in many years that it has achieved this level. I acknowledge that despite these commendations, the concerns regarding the cost of living and currency rates remain.
“The urgency of the matter is not lost on us at the CBN and I want to assure you that we are working tirelessly with colleagues from across governments including the leadership of this House to bring lasting solutions.
“Governments around the world must grapple with rising fiscal pressures, necessitating a credible medium fiscal framework to effectively manage debt burdens. On the domestic outlook, we know that the Federal Government anticipates a 3.7 percent real GDP in 2024 slightly surpassing the estimated 3.75 percent in 2023.
“This optimism is backed by key government reforms and the expectation of improved prices and production which are set to drive economic growth. Inflationary pressures are expected to decline in 2024 due to the CBN’s inflationary targeting policy aiming to rein in inflation to 21.4 per cent aided by improved agricultural productivity and easing global supply chain pressures.
“A market-driven exchange rate was intended to create a stable macroeconomic environment and discourage currency hoarding. However, short-term volatility attributed to speculation has been an issue. To address exchange rate volatility, a comprehensive strategy has been initiated to enhance liquidity in the forex market.
“This includes unifying FX markets segments, clearing outstanding FX obligations, introducing new operational mechanisms for BDCs, enforcing the net open position limits and adjusting the remunerable standard deposit facility cap. We understand the economic costs of these developments, not just for the economy but also as they affect ordinary Nigerians.
“However, these costs are temporary and our decisions would address a lot of fundamental issues bothering Nigeria’s economic landscape. These measures will boost FX inflows, stabilise the exchange rate and minimise domestic inflation. Put simply, the exchange rate is determined by the dynamics of demand and supply for a product or service. In essence, the value of the US dollar is determined by the balance of US dollars entering the country and demand for the US dollar among Nigerians.”
Bagudu, on his part, maintained that the government had been holding a series of meetings aimed at addressing these challenges, adding that the allocation of 39 per cent of the budget to capital projects was strategic, and for now, efforts were geared on revenue collection strategies.
Adedeji, who said the government was working to bring more people into the tax net to enhance revenue generation without increasing taxes, added: “For 2023, the target for the service was set at N10 trillion. Through the efforts of all of us, we achieved N12.3 trillion.
“This came about because of the bold decision taken by Mr. President by rectifying the distortion in our economic parameters, the removal of subsidy and the wonderful work also being led by the central bank in the unification of the exchange rate.
“This has had a serious impact in the last seven months of our collection because of the rates we use and because the waste from subsidy payments were curtailed. So, we have overperformance from both the VAT collection and company income taxes because of those that are dollar-based. We have the target for this year based on the approved budget to collect N19.2 trillion which is 7.2 trillion more.”